Bears Dominate as SHFE and LME Weaken, LME Lead Closes Down 0.97% [SMM Lead Morning Update]

SMM, November 4:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,904.5/mt, which was also the day's high. After the open, prices fell quickly, consolidating on a weak note in the $1,880-1,890/mt range during Asian and European trading hours. Although there was a slight rebound in the European and US sessions, it lacked momentum, and prices weakened again afterward, ultimately closing at $1,885.5/mt, down $18.5/mt or 0.97% from the previous trading day's closing price. Trading volume reached 9,763 lots, with open interest at 195,898 lots, an increase of 2,192 lots. The price decline was accompanied by higher volume and increased open interest, indicating that bears actively added positions to push prices down, with new bears entering the market. Prices failed to reclaim the opening level throughout the day, showing clear bearish dominance.

Overnight, the SHFE lead 2612 contract was generally weak in the night session, opening at 16,765 yuan/mt, moving sideways in the 15,740-15,835 yuan/mt range, and ultimately closing at 15,755 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt or 0.06% from the previous trading day's closing price. Trading volume was 27,140 lots, with open interest at 63,846 lots, a decrease of 735 lots. The price decline came with shrinking volume and a slight reduction in open interest, reflecting that the night session was mainly driven by bulls exiting and market participants staying on the sidelines. Bears did not aggressively add positions, and the downward momentum weakened notably compared with the earlier period.

Yesterday, SHFE and LME lead prices weakened in tandem, with bears still in control and sentiment remaining bearish. However, oversold conditions combined with fading momentum suggest a possibility of technical repair or stabilization in the short term.