SMM: Global Lead Ingot Supply-Demand Pattern and 2027 Lead Price Outlook - What Else Beyond Fundamentals Needs Attention?
At the 2026 SMM Lead and Zinc Annual Conference - Main Forum hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), SMM Senior Analyst Xia Wenming shared insights on the topic "Global Lead Ingot Supply-Demand Pattern and 2027 Lead Price Outlook." She noted that, according to SMM forecasts, lead ingot supply is expected to shift to a slight surplus in 2026, with the surplus expected to be higher in the first half and lower in the second half. From Q3 to Q4, the lead consumer market enters its traditional peak season, and concentrated maintenance in the lead smelting sector provides phased consumption support for lead prices. However, underperformance in the peak season and expectations of lead ingot imports will constrain the upside for lead prices in the Chinese market. In the ex-China market, attention should be paid to the boost to lead prices from the release of new secondary lead consumption capacity in Southeast Asia. In addition, on top of fundamentals in 2026-2027, factors such as the progress of including secondary lead in deliverable brands and macro policy changes in China and ex-China markets will also need to be monitored for their impact on lead prices.