Germanium prices have risen nearly 102% this year, minor metals sector active, Yunnan Germanium and China Northern Rare Earth lead gains [SMM Flash]

SMM, October 13:

Supported by tight supply and resilient demand, germanium ingot prices have risen nearly 102% this year; spot prices of Pr-Nd oxide have continued to climb. China Northern Rare Earth and Jinduicheng Molybdenum reported impressive net profit for the first three quarters, and multiple positive factors pushed the minor metals sector to close higher on October 13. As of the close on October 13, the minor metals sector rose 0.56%. Among individual stocks: Huayang New Materials hit the daily limit, while Yunnan Germanium, China Northern Rare Earth, Jinduicheng Molybdenum, and Tin Stock led the gains.

Market News

[China Northern Rare Earth forecasts Q1-Q3 net profit up 134.95%-138.84% YoY; major rare earth products consolidate at highs] According to the Q3 earnings forecast released by China Northern Rare Earth, preliminary estimates by the company's finance department show that net profit attributable to owners of the parent company for the first three quarters of 2026 is expected to be RMB 3.62 billion to RMB 3.68 billion, an increase of RMB 2.08 billion to RMB 2.14 billion compared with the same period last year (statutory disclosed data), up 134.95% to 138.84% YoY. Net profit attributable to owners of the parent company excluding non-recurring gains and losses for the first three quarters of 2026 is expected to be RMB 3.63 billion to RMB 3.69 billion, an increase of RMB 2.27 billion to RMB 2.33 billion compared with the same period last year (statutory disclosed data), up 166.64% to 171.04% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the forecast earnings growth, China Northern Rare Earth stated: From January to September 2026, the company served the national rare earth resource strategy and the development of a new-type energy system, fully implementing safety control requirements across the rare earth industry chain. Affected by supply constraints on the raw material side, combined with the release of demand from multiple downstream sectors such as new energy and high-end equipment, prices of major rare earth products overall consolidated at highs. The company closely aligned with its annual production and operation targets, coordinated planning to advance various operational tasks, strengthened comprehensive budget management, and deepened cost reduction, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement; strengthened marketing operations and scientifically organized production schedules; strengthened group control and risk prevention, deepened reform and innovation, integrated and advanced sustainable development, compliance, lean management, safety, and other management work, accelerated the construction of key projects, relied on technological innovation to cultivate new quality productive forces, and continued to release the synergistic advantages of the entire industry chain, strongly supporting a significant YoY increase in the company's operating performance for the first three quarters.

[Jinduicheng Molybdenum: Q1-Q3 net profit up 30.94% YoY; prices of various molybdenum products rose compared with the same period last year] On the evening of October 12, the Q3 earnings flash report released by Jinduicheng Molybdenum showed: In the first three quarters, prices of various molybdenum products rose compared with the same period last year. Through a package of measures including rigorous refined management, strengthened production-sales coordination, seizing product price highs, effectively controlling costs, and actively developing new products and new markets, the company's operating indicators all improved YoY. Among them, operating revenue reached RMB 12.4455458 billion, up 14.34% YoY; total profit was RMB 3.9744017 billion, up 32.25% YoY; and net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was RMB 2.9938432 billion, up 30.94% YoY.

Spot market

Germanium

According to SMM price data, on October 13, the average price of germanium ingot was flat from the previous trading day. At 27,250 yuan/kg, the average price was up 101.85% from 13,500 yuan/kg on December 31, 2025, marking a YTD rise of 101.85% for germanium ingot.

Supply remained tight, providing the core support for the sustained rise in germanium prices. The demand-side signals behind this round of price gains were relatively solid: infrared optics was the core engine—germanium is a key material for infrared lenses in thermal imaging cameras, and demand from national defense and military, security monitoring, industrial temperature measurement, and automotive night vision remained highly robust. Q4 is traditionally the peak season for military order deliveries and security equipment procurement, and downstream infrared lens producers had already stepped up stockpiling of germanium-containing materials at the end of Q3. Satellite and optical fiber demand also resonated: germanium substrates are a key material for high-efficiency gallium arsenide solar cells used in satellites, and the accelerating deployment of low-Earth orbit satellite constellations boosted germanium substrate orders; demand for germanium tetrachloride used in optical fiber doping remained stable alongside optical communication network construction. It is worth noting that downstream acceptance of prices above 26,000 yuan/kg had weakened compared with the earlier low-price phase, and the marginal boost from demand to prices had diminished somewhat.

For the outlook on germanium, in the short term, the combination of tight supply and peak-season demand remains intact, and germanium prices are expected to continue consolidating on a strong note with a rising center. However, given that downstream digestion of high prices takes time, the pace of gains may gradually slow from earlier levels, and the market is more likely to consolidate sideways for a period before moving to a higher level.

Pr-Nd oxide

The rise in Pr-Nd oxide prices in the first three quarters of this year also boosted revenue at some rare earth enterprises. A review of SMM Pr-Nd oxide price trends in the first three quarters shows that the average price on September 30 was 739,500 yuan/mt, up 21.93% from 606,500 yuan/mt on December 31, 2025. The daily average price of Pr-Nd oxide in the first three quarters of this year was 740,546.96 yuan/mt, up 57.46% YoY from 470,306.01 yuan/mt in the first three quarters of 2025.

Driven by purchases from top-tier players on October 12, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide extended gains on October 13, with low-priced cargoes in the market tightening further and suppliers gaining more confidence to hold prices firm. Pr-Nd alloy quotes were raised accordingly, mainly reflecting passive pass-through adjustments at the metal processing stage amid persistently rising raw material costs, with overall gains limited. Trading-wise, downstream magnetic material enterprises continued to purchase mainly on a rigid demand basis, with limited acceptance of raw materials after price hikes. Actual orders followed up slowly, and the uptrend has yet to be fully confirmed by trading volume. In the short term, the Pr-Nd series remains resilient, supported by raw material suppliers holding prices firm and downstream rigid demand, but whether the uptrend can persist will depend on whether trading volume can expand.