SMM Tin Morning Brief | The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed sideways at 409,600 yuan/mt before the holiday, while LME tin edged down $130 to $54,184/mt on the first day after the holiday. The probability of an October rate hike fell to 14%, with the tight balance yet to be confirmed – October 8, 2026 (Thursday)
[Futures] Before the holiday, the most-traded SHFE tin SN2611 contract settled at 409,600 yuan/mt on 9/30 (+610, +0.15%), with a settlement price of 411,480, open interest of 28,000 lots, and trading volume of 84,500 lots. It opened at 410,800, hit a high of 415,810 and a low of 407,420, moving sideways throughout the day as the market closed steadily ahead of the National Day holiday. Open interest in the former SN2610 (October contract) had fallen to 2,137 lots before the holiday, and it is no longer the most-traded contract. LME tin: During the National Day holiday (9/30-10/7), prices moved sideways with overall fluctuations of <1.5%. On 10/7, LME 3M tin settled at $54,184/mt (-130, -0.24%), with an intraday high of 54,370, a low of 53,900, and a previous settlement of 54,135.
[Three-dimensional Inventory] LME: Tin inventory stood at 4,480 mt on 9/30 (+25), including 3,615 mt of registered warrants and 865 mt of canceled warrants, with a cancellation ratio of 19.31%, indicating structural tightness. SHFE: Tin futures warrants totaled 4,158 mt on 9/30 (+45), down 300 mt (-6.73%) in the week before the holiday and down 973 mt (-18.96%) over the past month. SMM China social inventory: Destocking of 982 mt occurred in the last week before the holiday, down over 10% MoM, with Shanghai accounting for 90% of the decline. Overall inventory remained low and volatile.
[Macro] The US Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% at the 9/16 FOMC meeting, the first hike since July 2023. The 10-year US Treasury yield settled at 4.203% on 9/30 (-0.21%). The Fed released the September meeting minutes in the early hours of 10/7: most officials believed another rate hike before year-end was possible (hawkish), with inflation still elevated. September nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29k, far below the expected 90k, with the previous two months revised down by a combined 60k. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, reinforcing signs of a cooling labor market. CME FedWatch: The probability of holding rates steady in October rose to 84-86% (the probability of a 25bp hike fell to 14-28%), while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike by December stood at 63-68%. Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman (10/1) hinted at a pause in October, while Kansas City Fed's Schmid (10/6) was hawkish, as divisions within the Fed persisted.
[Fundamentals] Mine supply: The Man Maw mining area in Myanmar's Wa State has resumed production to 40-50% of pre-ban levels, with the rainy season continuing to affect logistics. In August, China imported 7,395 mt of tin concentrates from Myanmar (+61.84% MoM, +253.55% YoY) and 3,763 mt from the DRC (+46.49% MoM, +54.07% YoY). The market generally expects Myanmar's tin concentrate exports to China in metal content terms to approach 20,000 mt for the full year. Smelting side: Tin Industry Co. started a maintenance shutdown of no more than 45 days from 9/30 (already included in the annual plan, with no material impact on production); in the week before the holiday, the combined tin ingot smelting operating rate in the two provinces fell to 42.73%, a new low in nearly three months. Indonesia: RKAB quota system, export tax of 10-15%, supply remained stable during the holiday. Demand: AI computing power and advanced packaging solder maintained resilience, but traditional consumer electronics and PV welding strip orders were weak, and downstream buyers mostly purchased on demand before the holiday and controlled raw material inventories.
[Spot Market] Pre-holiday review: SHFE tin moved sideways, and the market closed steadily ahead of the National Day holiday, with hard constraints on the ore side providing a floor + maintenance being implemented + low social inventory, overall maintaining a tight balance. Post-holiday estimate: With the reopening of SHFE, stable LME during the holiday + the US dollar index pulling back slightly from a 17-month high + cooler-than-expected September nonfarm payrolls providing mild support for metal prices; the SHFE tin price center may edge up slightly from pre-holiday levels, but downstream acceptance of the current high levels + renewed expectations of a December rate hike are constraints on the upside. Follow-up focus: the pace of Tin Industry Co.'s maintenance implementation, the tone of the US Fed's October meeting, and the extent of recovery in ore arrivals from Myanmar.
![The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract closed at 408,590 yuan/mt in the night session, and edged up 0.10% in the daytime session. LME tin 3M fell 0.47% to $54,135 [SMM Tin Morning Update]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/WWXJU20251217171753.jpg)
![[SMM Analysis] Disappointing nonfarm payrolls cooled rate hike expectations, LME tin held steady at highs, SHFE tin is expected to hold up well after the holiday](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/qWcEp20251217171751.jpeg)
