The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract closed at 408,590 yuan/mt in the night session, and edged up 0.10% in the daytime session. LME tin 3M fell 0.47% to $54,135 [SMM Tin Morning Update]

SMM Tin Morning Brief | SHFE tin SN2610 closed at 408,590 yuan/mt in the night session and edged up 0.10% in the daytime session. LME tin 3M fell 0.47% to $54,135, with inventory down 80 mt to 4,325 mt. The tight balance pattern persists — October 8, 2026 (Thursday)

[Futures] The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract closed at 408,590 yuan/mt in the actual night session (actual close from 21:00 on 9/29 to 02:30 on 9/30 before the holiday; due to the extended National Day holiday, the first trading day after the holiday on 10/8 still used the previous night session as the benchmark). On the last trading day before the holiday, 9/30, the daytime session opened at 409,140 yuan/mt, hit a high of 415,290 yuan/mt, a low of 407,110 yuan/mt, closed at 408,990 yuan/mt, and settled at 410,840 yuan/mt, up 400 yuan/mt (+0.10%). Trading volume was 8,588 lots, open interest was 2,137 lots, with open interest down sharply by 1,990 lots. The slight price increase accompanied by a notable pullback in open interest suggests bears were mainly closing positions, with pre-holiday risk-averse sentiment being released. LME tin 3M fully closed at $54,135/mt on 10/6 (down $255, -0.47%), and consolidated in the $53,900-54,370/mt range during 10/7 trading, with the center shifting slightly lower under pressure from a stronger US dollar.

[Macro] The minutes of the US Fed's September FOMC meeting were released in the early hours of 10/8 Beijing time. Market expectations for another rate hike within the year pulled back to around 50%. The 10-year US Treasury yield stayed high at 5.20%, and the US dollar index remained strong, capping the upside for tin prices. Brent crude oil consolidated at highs, intensifying concerns about sticky inflation. Until macro risk appetite recovers, upside for base metals remains limited.

[Fundamentals] Supply side: Tin Industry Co.'s tin branch began routine maintenance shutdowns of tin smelting equipment starting 9/30 (no more than 45 days), extending the tightening in China's smelting sector. Production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa State remain slow, with the rainy season continuing to disrupt ore imports and deliveries. Inventory side: LME tin inventory was reported at 4,325 mt on 10/7 (down 80 mt), marking four consecutive days of destocking. SHFE tin futures warrants were reported at 4,158 mt on 9/30 (up 45 mt), with no updates during the National Day holiday market closure from 9/30 to 10/7. SMM's latest China tin ingot social inventory data as of 9/30 showed a single-week destocking of 982 mt, down more than 10% MoM, with Shanghai accounting for 90% of the decline. Data for the first day after the holiday is yet to be released. Demand side: Downstream solder and electronics sectors are gradually resuming production after the holiday. AI computing power and advanced packaging high-end solder support medium and long-term demand, but traditional consumer electronics recovery remains weak, and the September peak season fell short of expectations.

[Summary] SHFE tin maintains a tight balance pattern, with solid support at the 410,000 yuan/mt level. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue to consolidate at highs today.