Review of tin market during China's 2026 National Day holiday
I. LME price action during the holiday
During this year's National Day holiday, LME tin prices were broadly stable, with the market lacking clear directional drivers. LME 3-month tin hovered around $54,000/mt in a narrow range throughout the holiday. On the last trading day before the holiday (30 September), LME tin settled at $54,101/mt; on the first day of the holiday (1 October), it pulled back slightly to $53,771/mt; on 2 October, disrupted by the concentrated release of key US September economic data, LME tin briefly dipped before stabilizing and rebounding. Throughout the holiday, LME tin's trading range was less than 1.5%, with no marginal changes on either the supply or demand side sufficient to break the balance.
II. Macro front
The biggest macro story outside China during the National Day holiday centered on the intensive release of key US September economic data and the market's repricing of the US Fed's rate path.
- On 1 October, US initial jobless claims for the prior week came in at 197,000, slightly below the market expectation of 200,000, showing no signs of deterioration in the labour market yet; the September ISM manufacturing PMI released the same day was 54.5, remaining in expansion territory.
- On 2 October, US September non-farm payrolls data "stunned" the market, with only 29,000 jobs added, far below the roughly 90,000 expected, and the prior two months' figures were revised down by a combined 60,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.2%, and hourly wage growth also slowed notably, reinforcing signals of a cooling labour market.
- On 5 October, the September ISM services PMI came in at 54.9, marking 27 consecutive months in expansion territory, but the prices sub-index hit a four-year high, underscoring persistent services inflation pressure.
Overall, PMI data showed the US economy remains resilient with lingering inflation pressure, while non-farm payrolls data pointed to a clear cooling in the job market. This divergence between "sticky inflation" and "weakening employment" formed the core backdrop for the market's repeated tug-of-war over the Fed's policy path during the National Day holiday.
On rate expectations, the US Fed had just completed its first rate hike since July 2023 on 16 September (a 25bp increase to 3.75%–4.00%), and the dot plot suggested one more hike could come within the year. The market had held high expectations for a continued hike in October, with bets on an October hike approaching 80% before the holiday. After the September non-farm payrolls data, rate hike expectations cooled sharply: according to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of holding rates unchanged at the October meeting rose to 84%–86%, while the probability of a 25bp hike fell to 14%–28%; however, the market still held relatively strong expectations for a December hike, with the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike by December holding in the 63%–68% range.
Meanwhile, comments from Fed officialsalso happened to outline the divisions within the Fed:
First, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman said on 1 October that "I don't see an urgent need to take further action at this time," and that more time was needed to assess the overall economic data. As a core member of the Fed's decision-making body, this comment was interpreted by the market as the most direct signal of a pause at the October meeting.
Second, Kansas City Fed President Schmid said on 6 October that inflation had regained upward momentum, that the policy tool available to the Fed was raising the policy rate, and that the Fed's credibility would be "at risk" if it did not continue to act to bring inflation down to the 2% target. His hawkish stance stood in sharp contrast to Bowman's, suggesting the possibility of another hike in December had not been eliminated.
III. Fundamentals: stable supply, lacking strong drivers
During the National Day holiday, none of the three major supply sources saw disruptions on the scale of last year's Indonesian "crackdown on illegal mining":
First, Yunnan Tin's maintenance proceeded as planned. Tin Corporation announced on 28 September that its tin subsidiary would carry out routine production suspension for maintenance starting 30 September, expected to last no more than 45 days. The maintenance had already been incorporated into the company's production plan at the start of the year and would have no material impact on full-year production. The maintenance news had been fully released and digested by the market before the holiday, and domestic refined tin supply showed no obvious tightness during the maintenance period, with overall supply remaining on a stabilizing trend.
Second, Indonesian supply was stable. Indonesian tin exports did not face the policy shocks seen in the same period last year, with export supply remaining steady and market concerns limited.
Third, tin ore supply continued to recover. According to customs data, Myanmar tin ore imports reached 7,395.46 mt in August (+61.84% MoM, +253.55% YoY), the largest source of growth, followed by DRC at 3,762.79 mt (+46.49% MoM, +54.07% YoY).
IV. Price outlook
Looking ahead to the post-holiday market, SHFE tin is expected to hold up well overall, with the price center likely to edge higher from pre-holiday levels:
First, post-holiday activity on SHFE is set to rebound. With LME stable during the long holiday and the domestic market closed, market participation should pick up notably after the holiday, and the repricing of holiday moves on SHFE could bring some catch-up momentum.
Second, there was no notably bearish news from overseas during the National Day holiday. CME data showed the probability of holding rates unchanged in October had risen above 84%, and the US dollar index had pulled back slightly from a 17-month high, providing mild macro support for metals prices. Under the mainstream path of "no move in October, revisit in December" for the Fed, near-term policy uncertainty has eased somewhat. On the supply side, the combination of Yunnan Tin's maintenance, stable Indonesian supply, and Myanmar's recovery also brought no new bearish factors.
That said, the upside still faces two constraints. First, downstream acceptance of current high prices—if spot struggles to catch up, upside for futures will be limited. Second, the potential for renewed December rate hike expectations—if the US dollar strengthens again, it could weigh on LME prices. Going forward, key focus areas include the Fed's late-October FOMC meeting statement, progress on Yunnan Tin's maintenance, and the pace of Myanmar supply recovery.
