National Day Holiday Chrome Ore Market Review and Post-Holiday Outlook [SMM Analysis]

October 7, 2026 news:

During the National Day holiday, trading in China's chrome ore market stalled, with no significant price fluctuations. In the spot market, Tianjin port 40-42% South African fines were quoted at 52-52.5 yuan/mtu; 40-42% South African raw ore was quoted at 51-52 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate was quoted at 54-55 yuan/mtu; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore was quoted at 56-57 yuan/mtu; 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was quoted at 70-71 yuan/mtu, and 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate ore was quoted at 70-71 yuan/mtu, all flat MoM from the last trading day before the holiday. In the futures market, the latest pre-holiday quote for 40-42% South African fines was $265/mt; 48-50% Zimbabwean fines were quoted at $355-365/mt; 40-42% Turkish lump ore was quoted at $335-345/mt, flat MoM.

Pricing deals were largely completed in late September. Affected by sluggish ferrochrome shipments, smelters showed insufficient willingness for concentrated procurement of chrome ore as a raw material, making only small restocking purchases. Meanwhile, the decline in port chrome ore inventory was limited, with overall levels staying high, and the supply side remained in surplus. Some traders, seeking to sell and recover funds, offered concessions, with actual transaction prices below quotes and limited volumes. Entering the National Day holiday, the combination of end-user market closures and weak expectations led overseas chrome ore suppliers to suspend offers to China, and domestic spot prices saw no updates. The market was largely in a holiday wait-and-see mode, awaiting guidance from post-holiday steel tender prices.

Looking ahead, the recovery of leading South African ferrochrome smelters on the supply side will directly influence the pace of subsequent chrome ore shipments. Although recent chrome ore port arrivals have edged down slightly, overall chrome ore inventory remains high, making rapid short-term destocking difficult. Moreover, downstream ferrochrome producers have been cutting production or suspending operations due to losses, weakening bottom support for chrome ore as a raw material on the demand side. Participants are generally pessimistic, and chrome ore prices are expected to face further downside risk.