During the National Day holiday, the domestic silicon‑manganese market and its upstream‑downstream sectors saw generally stable prices with thin trading and no notable price swings. In terms of prices, offers from producers in northern major producing regions held steady at around 5,700 RMB per tonne. At Tianjin Port, prices for manganese ore lump stayed near 40 RMB per manganese unit, while semi‑carbonate manganese ore was quoted at roughly 33.5 RMB per manganese unit. At Qinzhou Port, prices for manganese ore fine stood at about 38.8 RMB per manganese unit, largely unchanged from pre‑holiday levels. Nearly all upstream and downstream markets closed for the holiday, resulting in muted trading activity. Silicon‑manganese manufacturers focused primarily on fulfilling pre‑holiday long‑term agreements and completing scheduled deliveries. Downstream steel mills suspended procurement entirely; almost no new inquiries or transactions emerged, bringing short‑term demand to a standstill.
On the raw‑material side, prices stabilized at lower levels, forming solid cost support for silicon‑manganese. The manganese ore market remained closed over the holiday. Semi‑carbonate manganese ore at Tianjin Port was maintained at approximately 33.5 RMB per manganese unit. Northern ports carried high inventories and faced mounting stock‑build‑up pressure. Pre‑holiday upward adjustments in overseas manganese ore quotations aggravated cost inversion for domestic ore traders and dampened traders’ willingness to take deliveries. Domestic manganese ore prices stabilized at low levels. Despite high inventories, further downside remained limited. Meanwhile, coke prices kept rising before the holiday, having essentially bottomed out in the medium‑to‑long run. Higher rigid production costs for silicon‑manganese have underpinned the price floor for the alloy.
On the supply side, overall industry capacity stayed elevated, maintaining a supply‑demand surplus. Elevated inventories continued to cap market prices. Regional divergence persisted. Producers in northern major producing regions operated under stable conditions with decent operating rates and sufficient output release. In southern producing regions, persistently high power rates kept production costs high and squeezed corporate profit margins, leading to subdued operating willingness and restricted regional supply growth.
Demand remained the key weak link. The traditional “Golden September & Silver October” peak season fell short of expectations. Weak end‑user demand was transmitted upstream, weighing on steel mills’ rigid purchasing requirements. Holiday‑related procurement suspension further highlighted the loose supply‑demand balance.
Currently, the silicon‑manganese market is trapped in a multi‑factor game: firm cost support, sluggish demand and high inventories. Prices show little independent momentum, with intraday swings driven mainly by black‑complex futures and macro sentiment. No substantial supply shortage is foreseen in the medium‑to‑long term, and the loose supply‑demand structure cannot be fundamentally reversed.
Three core variables deserve close attention post‑holiday. For supply: track the October production resumption in Yunnan and the implementation of output cuts by major southern producers. For costs: monitor price adjustments of chemical coke following metallurgical coke spot prices to gauge the strength of cost support. For demand: watch steel mills’ restocking pace, inquiry intensity and hot‑metal output changes after production resumes. Overall, coal mines in Shanxi will gradually resume operations, loosening raw‑material supply. Hot‑metal output may slide further downstream, yet expectations for supply‑side production cuts remain strong. Both upside and downside for silicon‑manganese are constrained; range‑bound oscillation is the most likely short‑term scenario. A clear market inflection point hinges on tangible demand recovery or industry‑wide production cuts. The manganese alloy industrial chain is expected to show relatively obvious improvement in November.
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