During the National Day holiday, China's SiMn market and its upstream and downstream sectors remained stable overall, with sluggish trading and no significant price fluctuations.
In terms of prices,offers from producers in the main northern production areas held steady at around 5,700 yuan/mt, Australian lumps at Tianjin port stayed at around 40 yuan/mtu, semi-carbonate manganese ore at Tianjin port held at around 33.5 yuan/mtu, and Australian seeds at Qinzhou port remained at around 38.8 yuan/mtu, basically flat compared with pre-holiday levels.During the holiday, upstream and downstream markets were largely closed, and overall trading sentiment was subdued. SiMn enterprises mainly focused on fulfilling pre-holiday long-term contract orders and completing scheduled deliveries, while downstream steel mills halted procurement entirely. There was virtually no new inquiry or transaction in the market, and short-term demand came to a standstill.
The raw material side generally showed signs of bottoming out, with costs providing a floor and forming strong support for SiMn prices.The manganese ore market was closed during the holiday, with semi-carbonate manganese ore at Tianjin port holding at around 33.5 yuan/mtu. Inventory at northern ports stayed high, and inventory buildup pressure remained significant. Pre-holiday overseas manganese ore offers were raised, intensifying cost-price inversion for domestic miners and dampening traders' willingness to purchase. Domestic manganese ore prices stabilized at low levels; although inventory was high, further downside was limited. Meanwhile, pre-holiday coke prices continued to rise, and the medium and long-term bottoming-out was completed. Rigid production costs for SiMn increased, cementing the bottom range for alloy prices.
On the supply side,overall industry capacity stayed high, the oversupply pattern persisted, and high inventory continued to weigh on the market. Regional divergence remained evident: in the main northern production areas, production conditions were stable, producers' operating willingness was moderate, and capacity release was relatively sufficient. In the main southern production areas, persistently high electricity prices kept production costs elevated, squeezing enterprise profitability and weakening overall operating willingness, which constrained regional supply growth.
On the demand side,it remained the core weakness of the market. The traditional September-October peak season underperformed expectations, and pre-holiday weak end-use demand transmitted upstream. Steel mills' just-in-time procurement continued to weaken, and with procurement halted during the holiday, the supply-demand imbalance became more pronounced.
Currently, the SiMn market is in a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, characterized by cost support, weak demand, and high inventory. Prices lack an independent trend, and intraday fluctuations mainly follow ferrous metals and macro futures. In the medium and long term, there is no obvious supply gap in the industry, and the overall loose supply-demand balance is difficult to fundamentally reverse.
After the holiday, three core variables need close tracking:on the supply side, watch the recovery of operating rates in Yunnan in October and the enforcement of production cuts at major southern producers; on the cost side, closely monitor the pace of price adjustments for chemical coke following metallurgical coke spot prices, and track changes in cost support strength in real time; on the demand side, focus on post-holiday steel mill restocking pace, inquiry and procurement intensity, and changes in hot metal production. Overall, after the holiday, coal mines in Shanxi are gradually resuming production, raw material supply is trending looser, and end-use hot metal is expected to decline further. However, expectations for production cuts on the supply side are strong, limiting both upside and downside for the SiMn market. In the short term, prices are likely to continue moving sideways, with a turning point awaiting a substantive recovery in end-use demand or the implementation of concentrated production cuts across the industry. The manganese alloy industry chain is expected to show more noticeable improvement in November.
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