Surplus Hard to Change, Prices Under Pressure: National Day Holiday Ferrochrome Market Review and Outlook [SMM Analysis]

October 7, 2026 news:

During the National Day holiday, China's ferrochrome market saw limited fluctuations, with prices flat compared to pre-holiday levels. Inner Mongolia high-carbon ferrochrome quotations were 7,650-7,800 yuan/mt (50% metal content); Sichuan high-carbon ferrochrome quotations were 7,700-7,800 yuan/mt (50% metal content); east China high-carbon ferrochrome quotations were 8,000-8,150 yuan/mt (50% metal content); Kazakhstan high-carbon ferrochrome quotations were 9,100-9,150 yuan/mt (50% metal content); India high-carbon ferrochrome quotations were 8,300-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

During the holiday, the ferrochrome market continued the pre-holiday weak pattern of "losses + consecutive declines in steel tender prices + underperformance in peak season." With end-user markets closed, inquiries and purchasing sentiment were sluggish, with no effective transactions concluded. Mainstream steel mills lowered October tender prices by 200 yuan, dragging down the ferrochrome price center, and retail quotations followed suit. Producers fell into losses, and ferrochrome producers in south China successively opted for production cuts and suspensions. September high-carbon ferrochrome production fell 3.17% MoM.

Looking ahead, the ferrochrome oversupply pattern is unlikely to change in the short term, and prices are expected to continue grinding lower. On one hand, the September-October peak season failed to stimulate demand recovery. The downstream stainless steel market is expected to weaken notably in Q4, with steel mills mostly having production cut plans. October planned production is expected to decline again, reducing rigid demand support for ferrochrome, leaving participants with weak confidence and pessimistic expectations. On the other hand, falling chrome ore prices combined with long-term contracts locking in volumes early leave limited room for sharp declines in high-carbon ferrochrome production. Meanwhile, ex-China ferrochrome has entered a full production resumption phase, with imports supplementing domestic reductions. Ferrochrome supply is unlikely to see sharp cuts, and prices are expected to remain under pressure overall.