During the National Day holiday, China’s ternary cathode market remained broadly stable. Spot quotations were suspended and transactions were largely at a standstill. Downstream stocking had already been completed before the holiday, and there were no notable market fluctuations during the break. The main market narrative remained the continuation of the pre-holiday downtrend and whether post-holiday demand could materialize.
I. Pre-Holiday Review
In September, ternary cathode raw material prices pulled back across the board. Based on SMM’s monthly average prices, battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged 139,800 yuan/mt in September, down 6.4% MoM; battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) averaged 128,100 yuan/mt, down 6.8% MoM; battery-grade nickel sulphate averaged 30,000 yuan/mt, down 3.8% MoM; cobalt sulphate saw the steepest decline, averaging 65,800 yuan/mt, down 13.5% MoM. The downtrend accelerated further in the last three trading days before the holiday: lithium carbonate consecutively broke below the 130,000 yuan/mt and 125,000 yuan/mt levels, with the September 30 average price already falling to 122,800 yuan/mt, a new low since this round of pullback began, while lithium hydroxide declined in tandem to around 111,500 yuan/mt; the lowest price of nickel sulphate fell below the 30,000 yuan/mt level, and cobalt sulphate continued to grind lower to 60,000 yuan/mt. Driven by broad-based weakness on the cost side, ternary cathode material prices also fell sharply across the board. Taking SMM 6-series NCM (monocrystalline, EV-grade) as an example, the September monthly average price was 169,200 yuan/mt, down 5.3% MoM.
In terms of transactions, given the large declines with no signs of stopping, coupled with the approaching holiday, most producers had already completed order signing and stockpiling. The market was dominated by a wait-and-see stance, with no clear dip-buying restocking at low prices before the holiday, and overall trading sentiment was highly cautious.
On the demand side, in September, China’s EV market demand remained weak. Cathode plants mainly focused on consuming inventory, with low enthusiasm for production and raw material purchases, and ternary cathode material production schedules fell significantly. The EV market outside China continued to maintain solid demand, and the possibility of a resumption of lithium battery export controls in recent months prompted some front-loaded orders. In the consumer market, some new projects for ultra-high-nickel 9-series materials performed well, but traditional legacy 5-, 6-, and 8-series projects were generally mediocre, and order performance was weak amid continued declines in raw material prices.
II. Holiday Developments
During the holiday, news in the ternary market mainly focused on new end-user and battery cell segments. In the auto market, new energy vehicle orders during the National Day holiday were booming, with a pronounced installation rush effect driven by the approaching deadline for trade-in subsidy applications. New entrants and leading brands generally hit record highs in large-order deposits during the holiday. Structurally, the bulk of orders still came from economy and mid-end car models paired with LFP, but orders during the holiday were also strong for some high-end range-extended and high-end BEV models concentrated in ternary configurations, providing some support for ternary demand in Q4. Battery cell side, during the holiday, a leading overseas battery maker's high-nickel cylindrical battery secured cooperation intent from a new North American electric commercial vehicle client, extending the high-nickel ternary route from passenger vehicles to commercial vehicles. Meanwhile, signals of overseas cathode material players shifting to LFP are increasing, with some cathode plants signing large-scale long-term LFP material supply agreements with battery cell manufacturers and scaling back ternary-related capex. The overall outlook for North American ternary demand remains under pressure.
III. Post-holiday Outlook
Price side, cost support is unlikely to provide much help for now. If lithium carbonate prices remain weak, ternary cathode material prices may still have some downside in the short term. However, given the already deep decline and increasing low-price inquiries from downstream buyers, the downtrend is expected to gradually narrow, with a window for staged stabilization likely to emerge around mid-October depending on demand recovery. Nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, continuing to weigh on ternary cathode material costs.
Demand side, China's EV market is expected to see a modest staged recovery in October. The recovery of car orders during the holiday provides support for post-holiday battery production schedules. October power battery cell production is expected to rise MoM, but the growth will be driven mainly by LFP. The recovery in ternary battery cells will depend primarily on order fulfillment for high-end extended-range models, with limited upside expected. Overall Q4 ternary demand is unlikely to return to the peaks seen in Q2 and Q3. On the policy front, the trade-in subsidy application deadline at end-November may pull some car purchase demand forward into October-November, providing a staged boost to high-end models equipped with ternary batteries. However, the risk of demand being pulled forward and then fading after December also warrants attention. Export orders were relatively ample earlier, and the subsequent trend will depend on changes in the detailed rules for lithium battery export controls. If the policy is delayed again, export orders may face downside risk despite the earlier ample order backlog, and this needs close monitoring.
Overall, the post-holiday ternary market is likely to maintain a pattern of weak prices and weak demand repair. Upside momentum will require both cost-side stabilization and demand confirmation. In the short term, just-in-time procurement and cautious wait-and-see are recommended.
SMM Ternary Analyst Wang Yizhou
![[SMM Analysis] Cobalt Salts After National Day: Supply Cuts Offer Limited Support, Prices May Keep Edging Lower](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/wzbHd20251217171731.jpg)
![Global Lithium Ore Market Review During China’s Holiday: Focus Returns to Conversion Margins [SMM Analysis]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/jZvMC20251217171729.jpg)
![[SMM Analysis] Lithium Carbonate Market Review During the National Day Holiday and Market Outlook](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/WBREf20251217171728.png)
