In the week before the National Day holiday, the lithium carbonate market remained weak, with spot and futures price centers moving further down. SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate spot prices fell steadily, and the most-traded LC2701 futures contract drifted lower from 118,800–124,200 yuan/mt at the start of the week to 117,700–120,500 yuan/mt, closing at 119,100 yuan/mt before the holiday, down about 3.8% for the week. Open interest first declined and then increased, with a continued tug-of-war between longs and shorts. On the trading front, pre-holiday stockpiling was nearing its end, with inquiry and transaction pace slowing down. Downstream material plants had largely completed their stockpiling, making only just-in-time procurement on dips, while some waited for early-month long-term contract deliveries. Upstream lithium chemical plants held spot order prices firm and held back from selling, focusing on long-term contracts and additional volumes under long-term contracts, with limited spot order sales.
On the supply and inventory side, China's lithium carbonate production was basically flat in the week before the holiday, with divergent performance across raw material sources. On the spodumene side, some enterprises saw production increase as ore gradually arrived at ports, while some integrated enterprises cut production as ore arrivals fell short of expectations. Lepidolite-based production was basically stable. On the salt lake side, some enterprises proactively controlled production, resulting in lower output. On the recycling side, some enterprises had production cuts due to maintenance. Lithium extraction from slag-related enterprises saw production decline due to raw material supply disruptions. From the perspective of actual market transactions and inventory, upstream lithium chemical plants maintained their long-term contract delivery pace, with spot orders still dominated by a firm-price and hold-back-from-selling stance, and inventory destocked slightly. Downstream cathode plants continued to stockpile on dips before the holiday, with long-term contracts and customer-supplied materials being delivered successively, and inventory continued to accumulate. At the trader level, inventory was steadily absorbed amid upstream firm pricing and hold-back-from-selling on spot orders and downstream just-in-time buying for stockpiling.
From the monthly and import-export data perspective, China's lithium carbonate production edged up in September. In October, increased spodumene arrivals at ports may lead to further production ramp-up, lepidolite output is expected to decline due to low ore inventory, salt lake and recycling are expected to remain basically stable, and lithium extraction from slag is expected to continue to pull back due to maintenance. Overall, October total production is expected to be basically stable MoM. According to Chile customs data, Chile's total lithium carbonate exports in August 2026 were 24,100 mt, up 3.07% MoM and up 42.48% YoY. Of this, exports to China were 14,261 mt, down 5.25% MoM and up 9.85% YoY; exports to South Korea were 6,630 mt, up 64.8% MoM and up 118.86% YoY; exports to Japan were 1,164 mt, down 26.75% MoM and up 112.2% YoY. Lithium sulfate exports to China were 16,300 mt, up 111.83% MoM and up 136.24% YoY. During the National Day holiday, the futures and spot markets were closed, but news from the industry and resource sectors continued to unfold. The cumulative registered reserves at the Jadar lithium mine reached 2.531 million mt, reinforcing expectations of ample long-term supply. The October production schedule across the lithium battery industry chain remained robust, with LFP output in October expected to reach 640,000 mt, up 4.4% MoM. These bullish and bearish factors are jointly shaping market views on the supply-demand pattern ahead.
Overall, continued destocking and production schedules are providing some support to lithium carbonate prices in the near term. However, the arrival of African ore, increased reserves in western Sichuan, and further output growth in October may cap the upside. Prices are expected to drift higher. Attention should remain on the pace of warrant cancellations and whether demand growth in October can be sustained to confirm actual supply-demand shifts.
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