During the National Day holiday, China's domestic cobalt chloride and tricobalt tetroxide markets were closed and trading largely halted. Cobalt salt prices had been edging lower before the holiday. What changed in the market during the break, and where will prices head afterwards? The analysis follows below.
According to SMM prices, cobalt salt prices declined steadily in small steps through September, and the pace picked up in the final week before the holiday. As of September 30, cobalt chloride (≥24.2%) was assessed at 70,000–72,000 yuan/mt. Its average price was down about 16,000 yuan/mt from the end of August, a monthly decline of roughly 18%. Tricobalt tetroxide (≥72.8%) was assessed at 230,000–245,000 yuan/mt. Its average price was down 50,000 yuan/mt from the end of August, a monthly decline of roughly 17%. With the long holiday approaching, most downstream buyers had already completed their pre-holiday purchases, leaving trading thin and the market largely on the sidelines.
No major price-moving events occurred in the domestic cobalt salt market during the holiday. Overseas, the DRC's Authority for the Regulation of Subcontracting in the Private Sector (ARSP) said it will conduct annual subcontracting and local-content compliance audits of major mining companies from 2027. Large copper-cobalt operations such as KCC, Mutanda, Tenke and Kisanfu may face sustained compliance pressure as a result. Separately, the US Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) announced funding for a pre-feasibility study of Buenassa's copper-cobalt refinery project in the DRC. Phase one of that project is planned at 5,000 mt/year of cobalt metal content. Both developments are medium- to long-term in nature and are expected to have limited near-term impact on domestic cobalt salt supply and demand.
On the supply side, production halts and cuts at smelters have broadened further. Some producers remained offline in the first week of October, and equipment commissioning after restarts is expected to take about two weeks. Overall, October output of cobalt chloride and tricobalt tetroxide is set to fall significantly.
On the demand side, downstream lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) producers hold relatively ample raw material inventories, and their purchasing appetite remained weak throughout September. After the holiday, they are expected to focus on drawing down stocks and buying only as needed. Concentrated restocking is unlikely in the near term.
Overall, supply contraction offers some support to prices. However, with downstream inventories ample and demand weak, that support is unlikely to show through in the short term. SMM expects cobalt chloride and tricobalt tetroxide prices to continue edging lower after the holiday. Going forward, the market will watch the pace of smelter restarts, as well as production schedules at LCO producers and in the 3C consumer electronics segment.
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