Pre-holiday Trading Quiet on Both Sides, Spot Premiums Continue to Pull Back [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM September 30 news:

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2610 contract were quoted at premiums of 850-1,100 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 975 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2610 contract opened higher with a gap, then retreated after a rapid rise, and subsequently consolidated at highs. After the open, prices quickly surged, reaching an intraday high of around 110,500 yuan/mt, before pulling back to around 110,390 yuan/mt. Thereafter, copper prices repeatedly consolidated around the 110,400 yuan/mt level, briefly dipping to around 110,330 yuan/mt during the session, rebounding to around 110,450 yuan/mt before pulling back again, and closing the morning session at 110,370 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between the current and next month contracts was between 740 yuan/mt and 860 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2610 contract for the current month ranged from a loss of 630 yuan/mt to a loss of 450 yuan/mt.

During the day, the selling sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.45, down 0.73 MoM, while the purchasing sentiment was 2.41, up 0.38 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. At the start of early trading, suppliers' initial quotes for Lufang, Tiefeng, and Yuguang brands were at premiums of 1,000-1,100 yuan/mt. Subsequently, suppliers sharply lowered their quotes, with Tiefeng, Yuguang, and others transacting at premiums of 850-860 yuan/mt, while non-registered copper was quoted at premiums of 450-650 yuan/mt. In the second session, overall trading was thin, with non-registered copper quoted at a premium of 450 yuan/mt, while market bids were around a premium of 300 yuan/mt, leaving a wide gap between buyers and sellers.

Looking ahead to after the holiday, SMM recorded social inventory in Shanghai at 49,200 mt on September 30, down 2,000 mt MoM; social inventory in Jiangsu stood at 12,700 mt, down 2,600 mt MoM. Before the holiday, downstream processing enterprises had largely completed their holiday stockpiling and had made advance arrangements with suppliers for cargo pick-up during the holiday. Supply side, recent arrivals of imported copper remain limited, and smelter shipments are broadly matched with downstream pick-up demand, keeping the overall market in a tight balance. After the holiday, as holiday stockpiles are consumed, downstream processing enterprises may have some restocking demand, but finished product inventories are expected to accumulate during the holiday, and actual purchasing intensity will still depend on whether new orders after the holiday can significantly increase. Spot premiums are expected to remain in a deadlock between buyers and sellers around high levels after the holiday, and spot premiums may continue to stay high in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the extent of social inventory accumulation during the holiday, the recovery of downstream orders after the holiday, and the impact of changes in the backwardation spread between the current and next month contracts on spot premiums.