On September 30, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$231.68/dmt, down $7.15/dmt from -$224.53/dmt in the previous period. The SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (monthly) for September was reported at -$217.62/dmt, down $34.81/dmt from -$182.81/dmt in August. The payable indicator for 20% grade domestic trade ore was reported at 98.5%-99.5%.
This week, spot trading activity for imported copper concentrates further declined. Some spot offers were made, but transactions were difficult to conclude, and some mines conducted tenders. In terms of spot transactions, market sources said a trader sold 10,000 mt of clean ore to a smelter at the index minus $16/dmt, with shipment in December; a trader offered 10,000 mt of South American clean ore at a fixed number below -$250/dmt, with shipment in November; another trader offered 10,000 mt of blended ore at a fixed number of -$235/dmt, with shipment in November. On the mine tender side, the previously tendered 100,000 mt of 2027 Telfer was awarded at around -$300/dmt on a trader basis. During the same period, a major mine issued tender information for 20,000 mt of Sierra Gorda copper concentrates, with shipment in November and December-January of the following year, 10,000 mt each, QP: M+4. The tender has closed, and the result is currently unknown. A tender was held for 10,000 mt of Constancia for November shipment, QP: M+1/M+3, with bids closing on October 2. Additionally, 9,000 mt of South American bundled ore was tendered, including 2,000 mt of Peruvian copper ore and 7,000 mt of Mexican ore, with a gold deduction of 0.4g. Smelters' acceptance of index-linked deductions and index-based transactions continued to decline, as they preferred to use fixed numbers for procurement to lock in costs. Some smelters with procurement needs were bidding at around -$225/dmt to -$230/dmt, while some smelters with relatively small procurement needs adopted a wait-and-see stance or bid at -$200/dmt. On the trader side, offers were mostly around -$235/dmt to -$250/dmt. The bid-ask spread gradually widened, making transactions difficult to conclude. However, the deduction magnitude for index-related transactions showed signs of narrowing.
On September 28, the Minera Esperanza and Distrito Centinela unions at Antofagasta Minerals' Centinela copper mine in Chile rejected the company's collective contract proposal, with 98.73% of members voting in favor of a strike. Both parties will enter a government-led five-day mandatory mediation process, which can be extended by another five days with mutual consent. Only after mediation concludes can the unions legally go on strike. Centinela mine produced 240,400 mt of copper in 2025. Although the strike has not officially begun, the high level of support reflects significant labor-management disagreements. If mediation fails to reach an agreement, it will increase the risk of copper concentrate supply disruptions in Chile.
On September 28, the Escondida mine had fully suspended operations after a worker died during maintenance work, and it gradually resumed production starting September 24. BHP subsequently requested to suspend collective bargaining with the supervisors' union and the staff union, but both unions rejected the request, and negotiations continued according to the original schedule. Among them, the supervisors' union voted on BHP's latest contract proposal from September 28 to 30, and the union has called on its members to reject it. Escondida's copper production in FY2026 was 1.2612 million mt, and BHP has lowered its FY2027 production guidance to 1 million–1.1 million mt. The mine has now gradually resumed production, easing the short-term supply impact, but labor negotiations have heated up again. If the contract proposal is rejected and talks break down during mediation, the world's largest single copper mine will face renewed shutdown risks, further tightening copper concentrate supply expectations.
On September 25, Peru's mining minister expected the country's copper production to be 2.5 million–2.7 million mt in 2026, and proposed to increase annual copper production by about 1 million mt over the next 5–6 years.
On September 30, 2026, SMM recorded copper concentrate inventories at 11 ports of 759,000 mt in physical content, up 60,800 mt in physical content from the previous period. The main growth came from Qinzhou Port and Fangchenggang Port, up 55,000 mt and 40,000 mt MoM respectively; the main declines came from Qingdao Port and Jinzhou Port, down 40,000 mt and 21,000 mt MoM respectively.
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