SAFE: China's External Debt Remained Generally Stable in Q2 2026

[SMM Brass Rod Flash] According to SMM data, the comprehensive operating rate of copper rod enterprises in September was 42.37%, down 0.27 percentage points MoM and down 2.73 percentage points YoY. High copper prices combined with tight supply of recycled brass raw materials kept industry demand under pressure.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to the post-holiday period, on September 30, SMM recorded social inventory in Shanghai at 49,200 mt, down 2,000 mt WoW; social inventory in Jiangsu stood at 12,700 mt, down 2,600 mt WoW. Before the holiday, downstream processing enterprises had largely completed holiday stockpiling and arranged cargo pick-up schedules with suppliers in advance for the holiday period. On the supply side, arrivals of imported copper have remained limited recently, and smelter shipments have largely matched downstream pick-up demand, keeping the overall market in a tight balance. Post-holiday, as holiday stockpiles are consumed, downstream processing enterprises may have some restocking demand, but finished product inventories are expected to accumulate during the holiday, and actual purchasing intensity will still depend on whether new orders post-holiday can see a significant pickup. Buyers and sellers are expected to remain in a deadlock over high premiums after the holiday, and spot premiums are likely to stay high in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the extent of social inventory accumulation during the holiday, the recovery of downstream orders after the holiday, and the impact of changes in the backwardation spread between futures contracts on spot premiums.