SMM Tin Morning Brief | SHFE tin fell another 2.22% overnight to close at 394,730 yuan/mt, with both bulls and bears cautious ahead of the September FOMC
[Futures] The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 411,000 yuan/mt on September 14, closed at 398,050 yuan/mt, down 3.22% (13,330 yuan/mt), with a high of 411,580 yuan/mt and a low of 397,820 yuan/mt, on volume of 124,700 lots and open interest of 36,100 lots. In the night session early on September 15, the contract extended losses, opening at 395,000 yuan/mt and closing at 394,730 yuan/mt, down another 2.22% (8,950 yuan/mt), with a low of 392,800 yuan/mt, on volume of 63,430 lots, while open interest fell to 35,570 lots (a daily decline of 485 lots). Looking at the positioning structure, bulls added 853 lots on the day while bears trimmed 141 lots, with both sides largely on the sidelines; the price decline accompanied by shrinking total open interest suggests persistent selling pressure from above while bullish bargain-hunting interest remained insufficient. LME 3M tin was quoted at $52,780/mt, down $1,033/mt (-1.92%) from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 tin average spot price was 402,600 yuan/mt (down 8,000 yuan/mt), with a spot quotation range of 401,000-404,200 yuan/mt.
[Macro] US August CPI rose 3.4% YoY, in line with expectations, but the 0.4% MoM increase was the highest since June, and core CPI rose 0.3% MoM, beating expectations. The probability of a 25bp rate hike at the Fed's September 15-16 FOMC meeting rose to around 90%. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.986% intraday, approaching the 5% mark, while the US dollar index held steady at 99.1, keeping risk asset valuations broadly under pressure. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated simultaneously, with Saudi energy facilities attacked again and shipping capacity through the Strait of Hormuz disrupted. On September 14, WTI crude oil rose 2.39% to $102.44/bbl, and Brent rose 2.59% to $107.32/bbl (breaking above $108 intraday). Daily tanker charter rates exceeded $1 million/day for the first time, and upside risks to international oil prices (Bernstein warned of a potential spike to $150) will further fuel reflationary pressures.
[Fundamentals] Demand-side polarization continued, with stable orders for high-end applications such as AI servers, advanced packaging, and semiconductor-grade tin materials, while traditional solder, tinplate, and tin chemicals still underperformed in peak season. After the 400,000 yuan/mt psychological level was breached, downstream restocking sentiment recovered mildly but with limited incremental volume. On the supply side, water levels and ore grade issues in Myanmar's Wa State continued to constrain the pace of production resumptions after the rainy season. Indonesia's tin ingot exports for July-August were revised up to 4,795 mt and 4,510 mt respectively (exceeding 4,500 mt for two consecutive months), prompting the market to reassess the probability of achieving the full-year production target, with the specific pace still to be confirmed by official August export data from Statistics Indonesia.
[Comprehensive] The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to consolidate on a subdued note in the 390,000-405,000 yuan/mt range today, with attention on further guidance from the US Fed's interest rate decision, dot plot, and the chair's press conference regarding the September rate hike path.
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