Tin Midday Commentary, September 14, 2026
1. Price Review
Today, SMM #1 tin spot was quoted at 401,000-404,200 yuan/mt, with an average price of 402,600 yuan/mt, down 8,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
The most-traded SHFE tin contract fell sharply, hitting an intraday low of 398,920 yuan/mt and closing the morning session at 400,490 yuan/mt, down 13,330 yuan/mt, or 3.22%, from the previous trading day, breaking below the 400,000 yuan/mt mark.
On the LME, LME tin 3M edged lower to $53,100/mt, down $100/mt, or 0.19%, from the previous trading day.
2. Spot Market
Spot market activity was brisk today. After prices broke below the 400,000 yuan mark, downstream buyers and traders actively restocked, though a small number of clients remained on the sidelines, watching whether prices have further room to fall. On the end-user side, demand is showing early signs of recovery, but order growth remains limited, and downstream demand is clearly bifurcated—high-end applications (such as AI servers, advanced packaging, and semiconductor-grade tin materials) are seeing stable demand, but their partner enterprises are relatively fixed and demand release is also steady, providing limited incremental demand to the market for now; traditional applications (ordinary solder, tinplate, tin chemicals, etc.) are affected by the end-use consumption environment, with demand release relatively limited compared with previous years, and the "underperform in peak season" pattern persists.
3. Overall Outlook
SHFE tin pulled back sharply today, mainly pressured by US August CPI data boosting rate hike expectations. US August CPI rose 3.4% YoY, in line with expectations, but the +0.4% MoM print was the highest since June; core CPI rose +0.3% MoM, exceeding the market expectation of 0.2%. After the data release, the market-implied probability of a 25 bp rate hike at the September 15-16 US Fed meeting rose to about 90%; the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.986% intraday, approaching the 5% mark, the US dollar index remained firm, risk asset valuations came under pressure, and nonferrous metals were broadly under pressure.
On the fundamentals side, although the rainy season has ended in Myanmar's mining areas, water levels and ore grade issues continue to constrain the pace of mining resumption, and China's tin concentrate imports from Myanmar will need to be monitored going forward. On the Indonesian market, according to Indonesia Exchange data, July and August tin ingot exports were revised to 4,795 mt and 4,510 mt, respectively, exceeding 4,500 mt for two consecutive months and marking a notable upward revision from earlier market expectations, prompting the market to reassess the probability of Indonesia meeting its full-year production target, though the specific pace still needs to be confirmed by official data from Indonesia's statistics bureau.
In summary,tin prices are clearly pressured by overseas tightening expectations. After the US August CPI release, the probability of a September rate hike has risen to about 90%, and wait-and-see sentiment is thick ahead of the US Fed meeting this Tuesday to Wednesday (September 15-16). The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to consolidate on a subdued note in the 395,000-408,000 yuan/mt range in the near term. On the downside, watch for rigid demand support near 395,000-400,000 yuan/mt. A directional breakout will require guidance from the US Fed meeting decision, dot plot, and the chair's press conference, as well as the further impact of Indonesia's August export data from the statistics bureau on supply-side expectations.
![SHFE tin closed at 404,090 yuan in the night session, down 1.51%, falling below the 410,000 mark. LME tin was at $53,200/mt, down 1.69% [SMM Tin Morning Update]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/GgYmu20251217171750.jpg)
![SHFE tin fell 5.09% cumulatively this week, giving back gains as the 410,000 level came under pressure again [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/gbiCe20251217171750.jpg)
