1. FuturesOvernight SHFE tin remained under pressure. On Monday, September 14, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2610) closed at 398,050 yuan/mt in the daytime session, down 15,770 yuan/mt (-3.81%), hitting a more than two-month low since early July, with an intraday low of 398,210 yuan/mt and breaking below the 400,000 yuan round-number level. Trading volume reached 63,400 lots, with turnover of 25.06 billion yuan, and open interest stood at 35,600 lots (-485 lots). In the early morning session on Tuesday, September 15, the weakness continued, with the contract closing at 394,730 yuan/mt as of 01:00, down 8,950 yuan/mt (-2.22%) from the previous settlement price, and an intraday low of 392,800 yuan/mt. On the LME, 3M tin closed at $53,100/mt on September 14, down $100 (-0.19%).
2. SpotOn September 14, SMM #1 tin spot was quoted at 401,000-404,200 yuan/mt, with an average price of 402,600 yuan/mt, down 8,000 yuan/mt from the previous day. After the sharp price decline, downstream restocking willingness recovered, but overall procurement remained primarily just-in-time.
3. Inventory
- LME tin inventory was approximately 5,200 mt, with 0-3 month spot discounts of about $277/mt and a cancelled warrant ratio of 27.4%.
- SHFE tin futures warrants stood at 6,030 mt, down 247 mt from the previous day.
4. MacroUS August CPI rose 3.4% YoY, in line with expectations, but the 0.4% MoM increase was the largest in four months. Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM, exceeding market expectations of 0.2%. After the data release, CME FedWatch showed the probability of a 25 bp rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting rose to about 90%. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.986% intraday, approaching the 5% threshold, while the US dollar index remained strong, putting overall pressure on risk asset valuations.
5. Fundamentals
- Mine side: The rainy season in Myanmar's Wa State has ended, but drainage issues and ore grade problems at mining areas continue to constrain the pace of production resumptions. In July, China imported 4,569 mt in physical content of tin concentrates from Myanmar (equivalent to 1,077 mt of metal, down 23% MoM). Indonesia's Timah traded 3,610 mt of tin ingots on the two major exchanges in August, up 3% MoM and 30% YoY, but cumulative trading from January to August was still down 18.17% YoY. Indonesia's July and August exports were revised to 4,795 mt and 4,510 mt, respectively. The Bisie mine in the DRC had no new suspension announcements this week, but regional security risks still need to be monitored. The Yinman Mining beneficiation plant resumed production on September 3, while the timing for resuming work at the mining area remains undetermined.
- Smelting side: In August, China's refined tin production was 15,888 mt (down 1.63% MoM, up 6.20% YoY), with cumulative production from January to August down 1.24% YoY. September production is expected to be approximately 15,800 mt. The combined weekly operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi was about 68.14%, with Yunnan rising above 90% while Jiangxi remained at a low level. Tin concentrate TCs for 40% grade in Yunnan stood at 18,000 yuan/mt, flat WoW.
- Demand: The operating rate at solder enterprises was 72.8% in August, flat MoM, with no clear signal of a traditional peak-season rebound yet. Tin solder production in July was 6,983 mt (down 4.18% MoM), and August output is expected to be around 6,900 mt. Demand for high-end solder used in AI servers and advanced packaging remained resilient, but it is difficult to drive concentrated spot purchases in the short term.
VI. Spot marketOn September 14, the most-traded SHFE tin contract plunged 3.81% and broke below the 400,000 yuan mark, mainly dragged down by US August CPI data fueling rate hike expectations and concerns over tightening liquidity outside China. After the sharp price drop, downstream wait-and-see sentiment eased slightly, but end-user order growth remained limited, and dip-buying was still mostly need-based, extending the "underperform in peak season" pattern. Expectations of upcoming Indonesian arrivals and rising domestic social inventory weighed on the supply side, while tight ore supply and low overseas inventory continued to provide support below. In the night session in the early hours of September 15, SHFE tin fell another 2.22% to 394,730, approaching the 390,000 yuan mark.
![SHFE tin fell another 2.22% overnight to close at 394,730 yuan/mt. Both longs and shorts remained cautious ahead of the September FOMC meeting. [SMM Tin Morning Brief]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/cUElw20251217171752.jpg)
![US August CPI further boosts rate hike expectations; the most-traded SHFE tin contract approaches the 400,000 yuan mark [SMM Tin Midday Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/wRltl20251217171750.jpg)
