[SMM Analysis] Supply-Demand Surplus Persists, SiMn Industry Chain Likely to Move Sideways After the Holiday
During the National Day holiday, China's SiMn market and its upstream and downstream sectors remained stable overall, with sluggish trading and no significant price fluctuations. The SiMn market is currently locked in a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, underpinned by costs on one side and weighed down by weak demand and high inventories on the other. Prices lack an independent trend, with intraday fluctuations largely tracking ferrous metals and macro-driven futures. Over the medium and long term, there is no notable supply gap in the industry, and the overall supply-demand balance remains loose, making a fundamental reversal difficult. Both upside and downside are limited for the SiMn market, and it is likely to continue moving sideways in the near term. A turning point will require a substantive recovery in end-use demand or the implementation of concentrated production cuts across the industry. The manganese alloy industry chain is expected to show more noticeable improvement in November.