[SMM Analysis: Intensive Maintenance at Smelters to Widen September's Primary Lead Production Decline]

SMM, September 1: In August 2026, national primary lead production fell far more than expected, down 3.52% MoM, with YoY growth narrowing to 6.78% from the previous month. Cumulative primary lead production in January-August 2026 rose 5.58% YoY.

According to SMM, in August, primary lead smelters successively entered maintenance, with the majority being delivery brands, and the overall reduction exceeded earlier expectations. In addition to the expected production declines from routine maintenance or equipment upgrades at medium and large primary lead smelters in Hunan and Inner Mongolia, primary lead producers in Henan and Yunnan added new maintenance plans, while a producer in Guangdong experienced an unexpected production cut due to an incident, bringing the total August primary lead production decline to over 10 kt.

Looking ahead to September, the impact of maintenance at primary lead smelters will intensify further, and the decline in primary lead production is expected to widen. Specifically, primary lead smelters in Hunan, Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan that entered maintenance in mid-to-late August will continue maintenance into September, with some expected to complete maintenance in mid-to-late September. In addition, primary lead producers in north-west China have added new maintenance plans, expected to begin in late September. Some producers in east and south China have cut production due to insufficient smelting raw material supply.
Notably, lead concentrate supply remains tight, processing fees are in negative territory, and by-product prices such as sulphuric acid are falling, leaving uncertainty over production resumptions at some curtailed smelters. Overall, SMM expects September primary lead production to decline 4.8% MoM.

Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.