Secondary refined lead production fell 2.33% MoM in August; September resumptions expected to drive rebound to 209,800mt

According to SMM statistics, China's secondary refined lead production recorded 165,500 mt in August 2026, down 2.33% MoM from July (169,400 mt), marking the second consecutive month at the lower end of the year's range, though still better than the lower bound of the previously expected 140,000–160,000 mt. Monthly production followed a "low first, stable later" pace: in the first 20 days, smelters in north China, east China, and other regions maintained low operating rates due to tight scrap battery raw material supply and persistent losses; in the last 10 days, lead prices rose, and some suspended smelters resumed production and ramped up, leading to marginal supply improvement.

From a profit and price perspective, the average SMM #1 lead ingot price in August rose from 15,250 yuan/mt at the start of the month to 16,150 yuan/mt at month-end, a gain of nearly 6%. Scrap battery prices remained weak, with the cost side providing relief, and smelter loss ranges narrowed significantly: as of August 31, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale secondary lead enterprises narrowed to -109 yuan/mt, and -294 yuan/mt for small and medium-sized enterprises, while some enterprises with by-product revenue from antimony, tin, and others had already turned slightly profitable. On the inventory side, finished product inventories of secondary lead across the four regions fell to approximately 17,300 mt at month-end, down about 45% MoM, with low inventories providing flexibility for production resumptions.

Looking ahead to September, lead prices are expected to fluctuate at highs, coupled with downstream battery enterprises stockpiling ahead of the dual holidays and improving orders. Some battery plants have already notified suppliers to increase pickup volumes, and smelter production enthusiasm is high. SMM expects September secondary refined lead production to increase by 44,400 mt MoM to 209,800 mt. Risks lie in regional tightness of scrap battery supply potentially constraining operating rate ramp-ups, as well as imported refined lead inflows pressuring domestic refined lead transactions; the pace of production ramp-up realization still needs monitoring.