[Delivery brand enterprises undergo intensive maintenance, September primary lead production expected to see a larger decline [SMM analysis]]

         SMM9 News on September 1: In August 2026, China’s primary lead production fell far more than expected, down 3.52% MoM, while the YoY increase narrowed to 6.78% from the previous month; cumulative primary lead production from January to August 2026 rose 5.58% YoY.

         It was learned that in August, primary lead smelters gradually entered maintenance, and those under maintenance were mainly delivery brands, with the overall reduction exceeding previous expectations. In addition to routine maintenance or equipment upgrades carried out as planned by medium-to-large primary lead smelters in regions such as Hunan and Inner Mongolia, which led to an expected production reduction, primary lead enterprises in Henan and Yunnan added new maintenance plans, and some enterprises in Guangdong saw unexpected production cuts due to emergencies, resulting in an August primary lead production reduction of more than 10kt.

         Looking ahead to September, the impact of maintenance at primary lead smelters is expected to intensify further, and the decline in primary lead production is expected to continue to widen. Specifically, primary lead smelters in regions such as Hunan, Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan that gradually entered maintenance in mid-to-late August will continue maintenance in September, with some enterprises expected to complete maintenance in mid-to-late September. In addition, primary lead enterprises in north-west China have added new maintenance plans, expected to begin maintenance in late September; some enterprises in east China and south China have cut production due to undersupply of smelting raw material.

         Notably, lead concentrates supply remains tight, TCs are in negative territory, and coupled with declining prices of by-products such as sulphuric acid, there is still uncertainty over whether some enterprises that have cut production will resume production later. Overall,SMM expects September primary lead production to fall 4.8% MoM.

Data source statement: Other data beyond public information are processed by SMM based on public information and market communication, relying on SMM’s internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.