Net Imports Plunged 66.4% MoM in July, Price Spread Narrowing Curbs Import Appetite [SMM Analysis]

SMM August 24 News:

According to the latest data from China's General Administration of Customs, from January to July 2026, China's cumulative alumina imports reached 2.644 million mt, up 570.8% YoY; cumulative exports stood at 1.914 million mt, up 21.7% YoY; cumulative net imports were 729,000 mt, still maintaining a net import pattern, but the expansion pace has shown a clear slowdown.

On a monthly basis, July net alumina imports were 62,000 mt, a sharp MoM contraction of 66.4%, with a significant decline. The contraction on the import side was the main drag factor. Analysis suggests that the recent rapid rise in overseas alumina prices has led to a notable narrowing of the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets, compressing import profit margins and reducing Chinese buyers' purchase willingness. Meanwhile, Australia, as China's largest import source country, exported only 302,000 mt to China in July, down 26.6% MoM, with some cargoes diverted to high-price regions such as the Middle East, further weakening the shipment pace to China.

In terms of import source structure, Australia remained firmly in first place, with cumulative exports to China of 1.945 million mt from January to July, accounting for 73.6% of total imports; followed by Indonesia, which exported 458,000 mt, accounting for 17.3%. Combined, these two countries accounted for 90.9% of China's total imports, with concentration staying high, but the overall import volume has shown a monthly narrowing trend.

On the export side, Russia continued to be China's top alumina export destination, with cumulative exports of 1.201 million mt from January to July, accounting for 62.7% of total exports. Notably, in the Middle East region, Oman exported 107,000 mt of alumina to China in July, up 7.6% MoM, mainly to meet local demand for bagged alumina, with transport primarily by land. However, as earlier cargoes transshipped from China to the Middle East are gradually digested, exports to that region are expected to pull back in the coming period.

Overall, although the current price spread between Chinese and overseas markets does not offer significant arbitrage advantages, China's alumina trade is still expected to maintain a net import pattern in August due to the impact of shipping schedules and arrival lags. However, affected by factors such as reduced import supply and increased overseas diversion, the net import volume is likely to continue to narrow, which will correspondingly ease the supply impact on the domestic alumina market.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team, and the information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute a direct recommendation for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not replace their independent judgment with this. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)

Data source: SMM