SMM August 21, 2026:
According to customs data, China's prebaked anode exports in July 2026 totaled 211,700 mt, up 21.86% YoY and down 24.40% MoM. In terms of price, the average export price of prebaked anode in July was approximately $1,031.80/mt, up 24.94% YoY and up 12.34% MoM. From January to July 2026, China's cumulative prebaked anode exports reached 1.5183 million mt, up 23.47% YoY, continuing the expansion trend. Both export volume and average price strengthened, keeping industry sentiment high.
I. Domestic Export Regions
From the perspective of domestic export regions, industrial agglomeration is notable. On a cumulative basis from January to July, Shandong topped with 989,900 mt (up 4.12% YoY), followed by Hunan with 145,600 mt (up 49.0% YoY), Shanghai with 141,100 mt (starting from zero last year), and Jiangsu with 130,900 mt (up 34.8% YoY). Hebei with 50,800 mt and Fujian with 16,000 mt were new major contributors. Focusing on July alone, exports further concentrated in Shandong, Shanghai, and Hunan: Shandong exported 87,300 mt, accounting for 41% of the total, ranking first; followed by Shanghai with 83,000 mt, accounting for 39%; then Hunan with 18,000 mt, accounting for 9%. These three regions together contributed nearly 90% of China's prebaked anode exports, with Shanghai's rapid rise as a new export hub particularly noteworthy.
II. Export Destination Structure
By destination, China's prebaked anode exports in July 2026 were mainly to Indonesia, Norway, and Malaysia, which together accounted for about 69% of total exports. Among them, exports to Indonesia were approximately 95,400 mt, accounting for 45% of total exports, ranking first for the month; exports to Norway were approximately 26,900 mt, accounting for 13%; and exports to Malaysia were 22,700 mt, accounting for 11%. Under the cumulative basis, export patterns from January to July exhibited significant regional divergence:
The Asian market continued to lead. Malaysia ranked first on a cumulative basis with 303,400 mt (up 22.53% YoY); Indonesia reached 300,000 mt, surging 98.49% YoY, becoming the second largest destination country; Azerbaijan exported 16,800 mt, skyrocketing 108.74% YoY, leading global growth, reflecting the boost effect from new aluminum capacity release in the Caucasus region.
Demand in Europe and the US remained resilient. Canada 218,700 mt (+21.75% YoY), Norway 201,700 mt (+40.76% YoY), Iceland 84,400 mt (+46.37% YoY), Spain 70,100 mt (+84.55% YoY), Belgium 16,700 mt (+188.52% YoY), the European market overall showed a "west strong, east weak" pattern, partially offsetting the gap from Eastern Europe.
Emerging markets accelerated breakthroughs. Angola exported 37,100 mt (near zero in the same period last year), and North Africa is gradually becoming an emerging growth source for China's prebaked anode exports; exports to new markets such as Australia and Vietnam grew steadily. Russia and the Middle East market were under pressure.
Due to geopolitical influences, exports to Russia from January to July were 38,200 mt, plunging 62.20% YoY, difficult to reverse in the short term; the Middle East region (UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman) cumulative exports reached 172,300 mt, down 24.12% YoY, among which UAE dropped 14.99%, Bahrain plunged 33.57%, Saudi Arabia declined nearly 60%, with regional aluminum plant production cuts combined with local supply adjustments, China's exports were under significant pressure.
III. Overseas Aluminum Capacity Dynamics
Entering H2 2026, the pace of overseas aluminum production resumptions and new capacity release has accelerated significantly, which will directly boost China's prebaked anode export demand:
Europe Capacity Restart: Hydro's Slovalco aluminum plant in Slovakia reached a production resumption agreement, with 75,000 mt of capacity to be restored in Q4 2026; Lista in Norway and San Ciprián in Spain completed production resumptions.
Americas Expansion Continues: Magnitude 7 Metals restarted line 1 at its Texas aluminum plant in the US; Alcoa's Q2 production was 636,000 mt, up 5% QoQ.
Middle East Production Resumptions Advancing: UAE's EGA's Al Taweelah plant made significant progress in production resumptions, with 89 electrolysis cells put into operation as of early July.
Asia New Projects Ramp Up Production: New projects in Indonesia and Viet Nam continue to ramp up production; India's Balco produced 168,000 mt in Q2, up 10% QoQ. 4. H2 Outlook
Considering the release pace of aluminum capacity outside China and China's prebaked anode export fundamentals, H2 exports are expected to continue a mild growth trend, with full-year cumulative exports expected to maintain a double-digit YoY growth rate and average export prices expected to remain at a relatively high level.
Key drivers: New capacity continues to be released in Southeast Asia (Malaysia, Indonesia); capacity expansion in the Caucasus region drives demand recovery; concentrated production resumptions at multiple European aluminum plants boost traditional market procurement; and growth contributions from emerging markets (Angola, Australia, Vietnam).
Key concerns: Middle East production resumption progress — geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East continue, but as of now, market feedback has not caused material disruptions to the production operations of local aluminum plants. Aluminum projects under construction and resuming production in the Middle East, Indonesia, India and other regions are still in the process of advancement. The subsequent pace of capacity release still needs to be tracked based on local aluminum plant announcements and actual start-up status, which will be transmitted to China's prebaked anode export demand through changes in aluminum production.
Potential risks: Russia's market has a low probability of short-term recovery, and geopolitical constraints are difficult to eliminate; the production cuts trend at aluminum plants in some Middle Eastern countries has not yet fully reversed.
In summary, in H2 2026, China's prebaked anode export market will present the operating characteristics of "volume increase with stable prices, continued regional divergence, and overall mild growth."
![Aluminum imports and exports: SHFE/LME price ratio in China and overseas is gradually recovering, and net aluminum imports are expected to rebound going forward [SMM analysis]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/ceevU20251217171653.jpg)
