September 30, 2026:
Affected by concentrated maintenance, production halts, and load reductions during the National Day holiday, the operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processors in China fell 1.6 percentage points WoW to 60.5% this week. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy producers edged up 0.2 percentage points to 60.2%, as enterprises maintained continuous production during the holiday through the liquid aluminum direct-supply model, with long-term contract volumes rising slightly, though spot orders have yet to pick up in tandem, leaving overall operations stable. The operating rate of aluminum plate/sheet and strip producers fell 0.6 percentage points to 69.4%, as some common plate producers proactively curtailed output. Renewed expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes made clients cautious about a potential decline in aluminum prices after the holiday, prompting them to turn wait-and-see, which forced finished product inventories to accumulate and significantly intensified destocking pressure. The operating rate of aluminum wire and cable producers declined 0.8 percentage points to 63.8%, as previously scheduled production line maintenance was carried out as planned, dragging on loads. Industry leaders maintained continuous production during the holiday, providing a floor, but power grid orders were released at a slower pace and on-hand pending production fell short of the same period in previous years. A modest recovery is expected after the holiday once maintenance concludes and orders are issued. The operating rate of aluminum extrusion producers slipped 0.5 percentage points to 52.7%, as some enterprises front-loaded production schedules before the holiday. For construction extrusion, falling temperatures and a lower aluminum price center drove a mild recovery in project-side orders, but home-improvement retail orders at smaller enterprises fell short of expectations. Industrial extrusion order backlogs were relatively ample, with most enterprises maintaining production during the holiday, and peak-season recovery outperformed the construction segment. The operating rate of aluminum foil producers fell 0.3 percentage points to 71.1%, as some enterprises kept cast-rolling lines running while cold-rolling and foil-rolling lines underwent 1-3 days of maintenance. Supply and demand for battery foil and packaging foil remained tight, and air-conditioner foil is expected to see a corrective recovery, but high aluminum prices suppressed cargo pick-up by clients, and the pace of inventory destocking warrants close attention. The operating rate of secondary aluminum producers tumbled 7.6 percentage points to 45.6%, the steepest decline among all segments, mainly because some sampled enterprises halted production for about three days, and this year's holiday and load-reduction arrangements increased compared with previous years. Tight raw material supply, elevated procurement costs, and stricter tax invoice compliance jointly pushed up operating pressure, and the pace of production resumptions after the holiday remains relatively limited. Overall, the strength of post-holiday recovery across aluminum processing segments will depend on the pace of order improvement and the trajectory of aluminum prices.
Primary aluminum alloy: This week, the operating rate at China's leading primary aluminum alloy producers averaged 60.2%, up 0.2 percentage points WoW, extending a relatively stable trend overall. At the enterprise level, producers continued to maintain normal production schedules, with no notable adjustments or fluctuations in production pace, and overall production plans remained steady. Entering the traditional September-October peak season, overall long-term contract volumes edged up, driving a modest increase in total production, but spot orders have yet to pick up in tandem, so output has not risen significantly. Downstream top-tier players did not shut down during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays and continued normal production, so there have been no production cuts for now. Most primary aluminum alloy producers use liquid aluminum directly in production and also maintained normal operations during the holidays, keeping the overall production pace uninterrupted. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether aluminum prices can stay below 24,000 yuan/mt over the long term and whether consumption will be stimulated after the holiday, but the short-term operating pattern is unlikely to change materially, and next week is expected to remain at current levels.
Aluminum plate/sheet and strip: This week, the operating rate at leading aluminum plate/sheet and strip producers fell 0.6 percentage points MoM to 69.4%. At the operational level, with the National Day holiday approaching, some common plate producers proactively controlled their operating pace, cutting operating rates to 50%; some enterprises also planned maintenance during the holiday while remaining in operation. On order dynamics, expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes have recently resurfaced, and clients have generally turned cautious on concerns that aluminum prices may fall after the holiday, leading to involuntary accumulation of finished product inventories and mounting destocking pressure. Overall, with aluminum prices still elevated, downstream aluminum plate/sheet and strip clients remained cautious in raw material stocking, with limited willingness to restock proactively. October operating rates for aluminum plate/sheet and strip are expected to face retreat-from-highs risks overall, and near-term destocking pressure warrants close attention.
Aluminum wire and cable: This week, the operating rate in China's aluminum wire and cable industry fell to 63.8%, down 0.8 percentage points WoW. The week coincided with the National Day holiday, and previously scheduled production line maintenance was carried out as planned, leading to lower loads and becoming the main drag on operating rates. Industry leaders maintained continuous production during the holiday, providing support to overall operating rates and limiting the decline. On the order side, power grid order releases have been slower this year, and orders on hand awaiting production fell short of the same period in previous years. Combined with aluminum price centers remaining in a high range, enterprises mostly maintained just-in-time production schedules, with procurement also largely need-based and overall weak willingness to stockpile in advance. In summary, industry operating rates were under short-term pressure during the holiday, and after the holiday, as maintenance concludes and power grid orders are gradually issued, operating rates are expected to see a modest rebound, though the extent of recovery will still depend on improvements in the order side.
Aluminum Extrusion: This week, the operating rate of aluminum extrusion slipped 0.5 percentage points WoW to 52.7%, as some sampled enterprises front-loaded production schedules ahead of the National Day holiday, dragging the operating rate slightly lower. In the construction extrusion segment, falling temperatures combined with a lower aluminum price center drove a certain recovery in project-side orders this month. Some large enterprises reported that key project orders on hand remain in the execution phase, with production maintained throughout the National Day holiday without shutdowns. Enterprises in the Shandong region indicated that project orders picked up at month-end, with priority given to rushing urgent orders for delivery during the holiday, followed by a concentrated 1-2 day break at the end of the holiday. The industry order structure showed significant divergence, as some small enterprises reported that home improvement retail and dealer channel orders fell short of expectations; weighed down by weakening orders, their plants arranged a unified 3-day holiday. Overall, construction extrusion operating rates edged down this week due to holiday disruptions at some enterprises, with the industry maintaining a mild recovery pattern, though the recovery momentum remains relatively weak. Industrial extrusion ran steadily overall this week, with most enterprises focused on executing orders on hand; supported by relatively ample order backlogs, most enterprises maintained production during the National Day holiday to ensure delivery. On balance, industrial extrusion showed stronger peak-season recovery than the construction extrusion segment, and once enterprises fully resume production after the holiday, the operating rate is expected to rebound.
Aluminum Foil: This week, the operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises was lowered 0.3 percentage points WoW to 71.1%. At the enterprise operations level, some aluminum foil enterprises maintained production on cast-rolling lines during the National Day holiday, while cold-rolling and foil-rolling lines underwent 1-3 days of maintenance, with production pace adjusted in an orderly manner. In terms of order structure, air-conditioner foil showed marginal improvement signals; driven by a low base last year and enterprises' push to meet annual performance targets, October household air conditioner domestic sales production schedules rose 3.1% YoY, and air-conditioner foil is expected to see a restorative recovery. Battery foil and packaging foil remained notably strong, with supply-demand conditions staying tight on both ends; however, it is worth noting that, similar to the situation for aluminum plate/sheet and strip, persistently high aluminum prices have dampened client sentiment for cargo pick-up, and if finished product inventory pressure continues to build, it could disrupt production schedules. Overall, the steady support from battery foil and packaging foil, together with the restorative recovery in air-conditioner foil, will jointly drive the October aluminum foil operating rate to maintain a stable-to-rising trend, while close attention should be paid to the pace of finished product inventory destocking at aluminum foil enterprises after the holiday.
Secondary aluminum: This week, the operating rate of leading secondary aluminum producers fell by 7.6 percentage points to 45.6%, mainly due to the approaching National Day holiday, with some sampled enterprises arranging production halts of about 3 days. Overall, this year, secondary aluminum enterprises have seen an increase in holiday shutdowns and load reductions compared with previous years. Besides holiday factors, tight raw material supply, high procurement costs, and stricter tax invoice compliance requirements have also added to production and operating pressure for some enterprises, making their production arrangements more flexible. Some have proactively adjusted output by reducing loads, scheduling maintenance, or extending holidays. In addition, some enterprises directly supplying molten aluminum have adjusted loads in line with downstream clients' production pace, and end-user clients' holiday arrangements have also had a certain impact on enterprise production. After the holiday, as enterprises gradually resume production, the operating rate is expected to rebound steadily. However, given that the difficulty of compliant aluminum scrap procurement remains high, raw material cost pressure is unlikely to ease significantly in the short term, and the extent of supply-side recovery may be relatively limited.
