【Australian Premium Hard Coking Coal Prices Rise 25% in January–July, Squeezing Indian Steel Margins】

Published: Aug 21, 2026 16:34

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Australian premium hard coking coal averaged $236/t FOB in the first seven months of 2026, up 25% year on year, driven by supply disruptions in Australia, slower-than-expected production ramp-ups at new mines, the Middle East conflict and the Shanxi coal mine accident in China. India relies on imports for around 95% of its coking coal requirements, with Australia supplying at least half. For blast furnace-based steelmakers, every $10/t increase in coking coal prices is estimated to add around 7–9/t to steelmaking costs.

Indian mills have limited ability to pass the higher costs through to steel prices because lower-priced Chinese steel continues to constrain domestic price increases. Meanwhile, India’s coking coal imports are forecast to rise by 2–3 Mt from 64 Mt in the previous fiscal year to approximately 66–67 Mt in 2026–27.

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