Downstream Demand Remained Weak; Suppliers Waited and Watched the Market [SMM North China Spot Copper]

Glencore’s copper production from its Democratic Republic of Congo operations increased sharply in the first half of 2026, while cobalt output fell significantly as the country’s export quota regime influenced operating priorities across its Congolese assets.​ Copper production from Kamoto Copper Company (KCC) and Mutanda Mining reached 138,400 tonnes in H1 2026, up 66% year on year. Over the same period, cobalt production from Glencore’s DRC operations fell to 8,700 tonnes, down 51% from 17,700 tonnes in the first half of 2025.​ The contrasting production trends reflect the impact of the DRC’s cobalt export quota system on how mixed copper-cobalt ore is processed. With cobalt exports restricted, Glencore has retained more cobalt in solution rather than processing and drying it into saleable cobalt hydroxide, while copper production has taken on greater importance within the operating mix.​ The DRC introduced cobalt export quotas in an effort to address oversupply, support market prices and strengthen control over a mineral in which the country holds a dominant global position. Glencore has previously indicated that its combined cobalt export allocation for 2026, including volumes carried over from 2025, stands at around 22,800 tonnes.​ The policy is therefore having effects beyond cobalt exports alone. By influencing processing decisions and the utilisation of available capacity, the quota regime is also reshaping the production balance between cobalt and copper at major Congolese operations.​ From a copper-market perspective, the 66% increase in Glencore’s DRC copper output highlights the growing importance of copper within the company’s Congolese portfolio as it adapts to a more restrictive cobalt environment. The development also illustrates how mineral-specific regulation in the DRC can have spillover effects on the production profile of associated metals.

【SMM Copper Social Inventory Flash】 As of August 17, SMM copper cathode social inventory in China’s major mainstream regions increased 15,900 mt WoW from last Monday to 133,900 mt, up 200 mt compared to the same period last year, with inventory buildup across all regions. Apart from delivery factors, under a pronounced backwardation structure, domestic smelters shipped to delivery warehouses in a concentrated manner, arrivals surged, and coupled with weak consumption amid high copper prices, inventories accumulated at an accelerated pace.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM data showed that social inventory in Shanghai stood at 80,900 mt, up 1,600 mt WoW from last Thursday; social inventory in Jiangsu stood at 23,200 mt, up 7,800 mt MoM, bringing the combined inventory buildup in the two regions to 9,400 mt. The buildup was mainly driven by the return flow of some imports and arrivals of domestic supply, but part of the inventory has been registered as warrants, leaving limited growth in actually available spot cargo. From the perspective of downstream consumption, intraday copper prices touched a high of 110,000 yuan/mt. According to SMM, some downstream processing enterprises had scheduled maintenance shutdowns, orders saw a marked reduction, end-users’ acceptance of the current high copper prices continued to weaken, and procurement was mainly driven by rigid demand. After the contract rollover, under SMM’s price assessment methodology, spot will be officially quoted against the 2609 contract tomorrow. As the contract price spread is expected to normalize after the rollover, spot premiums against the 09 contract are expected to remain at relatively high levels tomorrow, with the premium center moving up sharply versus today’s premiums against the 08 contract. However, attention should be paid to the potential suppression of spot premiums from subsequent warrant outflows—if warrants are released in a concentrated manner, it will create marginal pressure on high premiums.