Copper Prices Rose on the Last Trading Day of the 2608 Contract, Overall Trading Was Sluggish [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM News on August 15:

Today was the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2608 contract, and SMM consistently quoted prices against the current-month contract. Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current-month 2608 contract were quoted at parity to a premium of 160 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 80 yuan/mt, up 210 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2608 contract basically traded between 109,540 yuan/mt and 110,000 yuan/mt, while the SHFE copper 2609 contract basically traded between 109,160 yuan/mt and 109,740 yuan/mt. The back-month backwardation spread ranged from 220 yuan/mt to 370 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the current-month 2608 contract ranged from a loss of 3,620 yuan/mt to a loss of 3,300 yuan/mt.

During the day, sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.89, up 0.33 MoM, while purchasing sentiment was 2.77, down 0.22 MoM; historical data can be queried in the database. At the start of morning trading, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at a premium of 400 yuan/mt to a premium of 450 yuan/mt against the 09 contract; high-quality copper was scarce, so quotes stayed firm, with Jintun large plates quoted at a premium of 500 yuan/mt. Entering the second time window, suppliers slightly lowered quotes, with standard-quality copper such as Yuguang, Zhongjin, and Dajiang PC traded at premiums of 320 yuan/mt to 360 yuan/mt, while non-registered copper traded at around a premium of 240 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM data showed that social inventory in Shanghai stood at 80,900 mt, up 1,600 mt WoW from last Thursday; social inventory in Jiangsu stood at 23,200 mt, up 7,800 mt MoM, bringing the combined inventory buildup in the two regions to 9,400 mt. The buildup was mainly driven by the return flow of some imports and arrivals of domestic cargoes, but part of the inventory has been registered as warrants, so the actual growth in available spot cargoes was limited. From the perspective of downstream consumption, copper prices climbed to 110,000 yuan/mt during the day. According to SMM, some downstream processing enterprises had scheduled production halts for maintenance, orders shrank noticeably, end-users’ acceptance of the current high copper prices continued to weaken, and purchases were mainly driven by rigid demand. After the contract rollover, in line with SMM’s price assessment methodology, spot prices will officially be quoted against the 2609 contract tomorrow. As the contract price spread is expected to be repaired after the rollover, spot premiums against the 09 contract are expected to remain at relatively high levels tomorrow, with the premium center shifting sharply higher versus today’s levels against the 08 contract. However, attention should be paid to the potential suppression of spot premiums from subsequent warrant outflows—if warrants are released in a concentrated manner, it will create marginal pressure on high premiums.