Metals showed mixed performance; lithium carbonate, coking coal, and SHFE gold rose over 1%; SHFE zinc, SHFE tin, and polysilicon led declines [SMM midday review]

SMM, August 10:

Metals market:

As of the midday close, domestic base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper fell 0.52%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.15%, SHFE lead rose 0.41%, SHFE zinc fell 1.68%, SHFE tin fell 1.34%, and SHFE nickel rose 0.33%.

In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures edged up, while the most-traded alumina futures edged down. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 1.5%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 0.47%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 2.54%.

Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore fell 0.7%, rebar fell 0.47%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.15%. Stainless steel rose 0.48%. For coking coal and coke, the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.75%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.43%.

In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:43, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.3%, LME aluminum rose 0.69%, LME lead rose 0.29%, LME zinc fell 0.09%, LME tin rose 0.52%, and LME nickel fell 0.21%.

In precious metals, as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.28% and COMEX silver rose 0.36%. In the domestic precious metals market, SHFE gold rose 1.5%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 2.05%.

Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.61%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.05%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping (Europe route) futures fell 2.8% to 1,634 points.

As of 11:43 on August 10, selected futures midday quotes:

Spot and Fundamentals

Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper quoted at a premium of 0 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper quoted at 0 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 107,945 yuan/mt, down 410 yuan/mt, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 107,835 yuan/mt, down 410 yuan/mt. Spot market: After the weekend, Guangdong inventory edged up, mainly due to increased arrivals of imported copper...

Macro Front

Domestic:

[NBS: July CPI up 0.5% YoY, PPI up 3.5% YoY] National Bureau of Statistics data showed: In July, affected by imported factors, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% MoM and rose 0.5% YoY. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.3% MoM and rose 0.9% YoY, with CPI generally maintaining a mild increase. Domestic demand in some sectors increased, but influenced by imported and seasonal factors, the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.7% MoM and rose 3.5% YoY, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. In July 2026, the national PPI rose 3.5% YoY and fell 0.7% MoM. The purchase price of industrial producers rose 5.5% YoY and fell 1.0% MoM. From January to July on average, the PPI rose 1.8% YoY compared with the same period last year, and the purchase price of industrial producers rose 2.8%. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Statistics Division of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the July 2026 CPI and PPI data.

[PBOC reverse repo operation resulted in a net withdrawal of 45 billion yuan on the day] Today, the PBOC conducted 18 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations. As 63 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 45 billion yuan was achieved. (Jin10 Data)

US dollar:

As of 11:43, the US dollar index rose 0.12% to 99.72. According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged by September is 55.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 44.4%. By October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 40.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 bp hike is 47.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 bp hike is 11.8%. (Jin10 Data)

Economists surveyed by Reuters expect that the US headline CPI annual rate for July will decline to 3.4% from June's 3.5%, and the core CPI annual rate will decline to 2.5% from the previous month's 2.6%. Citi economists believe that, as expected, if there is a second consecutive month of softer inflation readings, it would mean that for more than one month, data point to cooling inflationary pressures, essentially removing the possibility of a September rate hike. However, economists also expect that core services inflation will edge up in July, with prices rising 0.3% MoM. This follows flat readings from May to June. Bank of America analysts say that a rebound in core services indicators could keep a September rate hike on the table. Analyst Kate Duguid said that if the latter view prevails and inflation data come in below expectations, the Fed rate hike could be postponed to December or later. (Jin10 Data)

The US CPI report released on Wednesday was undoubtedly the most closely watched data this week. Economists generally expect the annual inflation rate to slow slightly, but core inflation may still remain elevated, reflecting persistent price pressures in services and housing. Based on the latest data, the Fed remains cautious, emphasizing the need for further confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2% target before considering interest rate cuts. (Jin10 Data)

Data front:

Today, data such as the Eurozone August Sentix investor confidence index and China's July M2 money supply annual growth rate will be released. Attention should be paid to: the Bank of Japan's release of the summary of opinions from its July monetary policy meeting.

Crude oil:

As of 11:43, both oil benchmarks rose, with US oil up 0.67% and Brent up 0.91%. The deadlock in Iran-US negotiations over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz supported oil prices.

Iran's weekend negotiations with Oman failed to reach an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated clearly that Tehran is not currently in direct talks with the US. According to media reports, the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, said the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the US meets six conditions, including ending wars and aggressive actions against Iran and its allies and providing compensation to Iran.

The US insists that any reopening arrangement must guarantee unrestricted freedom of navigation, with no Iranian approval, fees, or control conditions. Citi noted that Houthi forces in Yemen continue to attack Saudi-linked vessels near the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and risks beyond Hormuz also remain elevated. (Wall Street CN)

Spot market at a glance:

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