Tug-of-War Between Longs and Shorts Reveals Pressure on Futures, ADC12 Consolidates on a Subdued Note with Cost Support [ADC12 Price Daily Review]

Futures: The aluminum alloy 2609 contract opened at 23,305 yuan/mt today, hit a high of 23,335 yuan/mt before noon, a low of 23,200 yuan/mt, and closed at 23,215 yuan/mt. Early trading saw prices shot up slightly to reach the intraday high before upward momentum weakened. The contract generally moved sideways around the average price line. During the session, a round of pullback tested the low support. After dipping, prices stabilized and then consolidated to repair. In the afternoon, bulls' strength was limited, and prices slowly drifted lower, closing near the lower-middle range of the day. Throughout the day, prices consolidated at highs with notable overhead resistance. The fluctuation range narrowed, and open interest decreased somewhat. In the short term, the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified, and the overhead resistance still requires close attention.

Spot: ADC12 market quotations consolidated on a subdued note today, with SMM ADC12 down 100 yuan/mt. On the cost side, there is still some support, but the pullback in futures and primary aluminum prices weighed on market sentiment. Meanwhile, end-use demand was mediocre, with insufficient orders and weak transactional support. Enterprises generally adjusted prices in line with the market, and their willingness to hold prices firm weakened. In the short term, ADC12 prices still face some downward pressure, but with cost support still in place, prices are expected to move sideways.