【SMM Analysis】Traditional Suppliers All Dip MoM as Non-Mainstream Origins Stage a Powerful Catch-Up

China's July Manganese Ore Imports Up 2.27% MoM, Driven by Surge from Ghana and Brazil.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs and compiled by SMM, China's total manganese ore imports reached 3.0853 million tons​ in July 2026, up 2.27% month-on-month (MoM)​ and 12.46% year-on-year (YoY). For the first seven months of 2026, cumulative imports stood at approximately 20.5767 million tons, a YoY increase of 19.61%​ (vs. 17.2028 million tons in Jan–Jul 2025), representing a net increase of 3.3738 million tons.

A breakdown by country of origin shows: Australia 433,500 tons​ (-2.28% MoM); South Africa 1.4285 million tons​ (-9.89% MoM); Gabon 373,500 tons​ (-9.31% MoM); Ghana 507,200 tons​ (+102.2% MoM); Brazil 228,000 tons​ (+289.78% MoM); and Myanmar 69,900 tons​ (+0.91% MoM).

Overall, the 2.27% MoM increase in July is the combined result of declining arrivals from traditional mainstream origins and a concentrated catch-up in shipments from smaller suppliers.​ The three major mainstream sources—South Africa, Australia, and Gabon—saw combined MoM shipments fall by approximately 228,000 tons, but this shortfall was fully offset by more than doubling of volumes from Ghana and Brazil.

Ghana ore: Shipping pulse + cost advantage drive a record monthly spike.​ Ghana ore imports surged 102.2% MoM​ in July (net increase of ~256,000 tons). Two key drivers: First, mines accelerated shipments at the end of Q2, and cargoes loaded in May–June arrived in Chinese ports集中 in July. Second, against the backdrop of high inventories and softening prices for South African semi-carbonate and high-iron ores, Ghana ore (Mn ~44–46% lump) offers a sweet spot in grade and manageable freight costs. It has gained traction as a substitute for mid-to-low grade South African ore in cost-cutting blend formulations at alloy plants, boosting traders' willingness to take deliveries.

Brazil ore: A base-effect recovery rally with questionable sustainability.​ July Brazil ore imports hit 228,000 tons, up a staggering 289.78% MoM. However, caution is warranted—June's base of just 58,500 tons​ was an anomaly, and July's volume still trails most months of 2025. The increase is essentially a concentrated clearance of cargoes backlog from earlier port maintenance and shipping schedule mismatches. Whether shipments can stabilize above the 200,000-ton level going forward depends on actual customs clearance节奏 in August–September.

Overall assessment: July data tilts bearish.​ Concentrated arrivals from non-mainstream origins have kept total supply loose, port inventory drawdown remains sluggish, and upside room for ore prices is constrained. The recent range-bound but relatively firm performance of the ferromanganese silicon futures contract reflects market expectations of production cuts amid plant losses and a marginal stabilization in steel mill tenders—not an improvement on the raw material side. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the alignment between manganese ore import rhythms and actual downstream demand.