According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs and compiled by SMM, China's silicon-manganese alloy exports reached 8,370.87 tons in July 2026, surging 132.05% month-on-month (MoM) and 252.24% year-on-year (YoY). For the first seven months of 2026, cumulative exports totaled 33,227.15 tons, up 102.05% YoY.
The monthly figure appears impressive at first glance, but a rational assessment is warranted. The comparison base in July 2025 was only about 2,378 tons—an extremely low level that significantly amplifies the YoY gain. More importantly, at 8,370 tons, the export volume accounts for less than 1% of China's monthly silicon-manganese output, which runs in the millions of tons. Therefore, the impact on the domestic supply-demand balance is best characterized as "marginal sentiment support" rather than a "reversal driver."
July's exports were heavily concentrated in Southeast Asia. The core driver of the increase was a raw material restocking window opened as regional steel mills completed maintenance turnarounds. Local silicon-manganese supply in these markets is limited, and combined with ample inventories at Chinese plants in July, export prices for some cargoes were more attractive than domestic retail rates—meaningfully improving mills' willingness to accept export orders compared to June.
In terms of regional export structure, Indonesia was the dominant destination, accounting for the vast majority of July shipments.
That said, while the export surge provided some sentiment support to physical silicon-manganese prices and futures in mid-August, the absolute volume remains small and sustainability is yet to be verified. Looking ahead, the durability of silicon-manganese export growth will depend on two levels of factors: on the macro front, the transmission of global economic shifts to the broader silicon-manganese market must be monitored; on the fundamental front, the focus should be on the recovery pace of overseas steel mill production demand, as well as changes in domestic producers' capacity adjustments and cost control dynamics.
