Market sentiment was driven by macro and news factors, and the center of the most-traded SHFE tin contract moved up before consolidating at highs [SMM Tin Midday Review]

July 31, 2026 Tin Midday Commentary

The domestic and overseas tin markets broadly opened higher and moved higher, with the center shifting upward. The most-traded SHFE tin contract (sn2609) opened at 419,000 yuan/mt, hit an intraday high of 429,770 yuan/mt, and then moved sideways at highs, closing the morning session at 425,700 yuan/mt. This represented an increase of 1.89% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Open interest increased by 12,038 lots from the previous day to 57,510 lots. On the LME side, performance was relatively mild. The three-month tin contract was temporarily quoted at $55,020/mt, edging down 0.34%.

Macro front:

(1) The US June PCE price index fell 0.1% MoM (the first decline in six years) and dropped to 3.7% YoY; the core PCE rose 0.1% MoM, below expectations. White House officials stated that persistently cooling inflation has left room for the Fed to ease. However, hawkish divisions within the Fed remained, and the market maintained some caution on the subsequent rate hike path.

(2) Germany's July CPI rose to 2.8%, and Spain's inflation reached 3.8%. Rising energy prices pushed up overall inflation in Europe, and the market raised expectations for an ECB rate hike in September.

Spot side, this morning, as futures prices continued to climb and breached the 425,000 yuan/mt high, suppliers actively quoted prices following the market. However, the continuous rise in the futures center made downstream and end-user enterprises increasingly hesitant, and purchase willingness was significantly dampened. Only a minimal amount of tin ingot was purchased during the day to cover rigid demand; most buyers chose to wait and see, expecting a price pullback, and actual trading volume in the market was limited.

Overall, the strength of the tin market today was driven by multiple bullish factors: official media reports boosted market confidence, disturbances from news on the domestic ore supply side fueled concerns over supply tightness, and the pullback in the US dollar index further opened up the potential channel for price rises. The open interest of the most-traded SHFE tin contract increased from yesterday morning to over 57,000 lots, reflecting strong capital attention and willingness of bulls to defend, with relatively limited room for a short-term price decline. Although high prices are still weighing on consumption, with the support of capital and sentiment resonance, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue to consolidate at highs in the short term, with the center possibly edging up slightly.