July 30, 2026 Tin Midday Commentary
This morning, tin markets in China and overseas shot up rapidly in early trading, then came under pressure and pulled back. The most-traded SHFE tin contract reached a high of 423,660 yuan/mt in the morning, then consolidated and pulled back, closing the morning session at 416,860 yuan/mt, posting a 0.49% gain from the previous trading day's settlement price. On the LME, three-month tin futures were currently at $54,175/mt, edging up 0.6%.
On the macro front:
(1) The US Fed's FOMC decision announced to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, in line with broad market expectations. This was the fifth consecutive hold this year (with a voting result of 9 in favor of holding and 3 dissenting, favoring a 25bp rate hike). The smooth outcome of the decision released macro sentiment and directly drove the rapid rise in tin prices in early trading today.
(2) On July 29, Iranian missiles struck a US military base in Jordan, after which US forces, together with Saudi Arabia, conducted strikes on Iran-linked armed groups inside Iraq. Trump publicly stated that strong retaliation would be taken against Iran and did not rule out the possibility of large-scale strikes on Iranian facilities. The previously brief window for diplomatic negotiations has now largely closed, intensifying geopolitical uncertainty again.
In the spot market, the market remained under pressure from absolutely high prices, downstream users showed heavy wait-and-see sentiment, and overall trading maintained a just-in-time procurement pattern. Looking at various downstream sub-sectors, the overall situation was weighed down by the off-season. The solder market is currently in the traditional off-season for the electronics industry, with end-user order releases at a relatively slow pace. Although consumption in emerging sectors such as NEVs and AI servers remains positive, their growth is offset by weak traditional demand, and overall purchases appear thin under the pressure of high futures prices. The tin chemical stabilizer market was constrained by slow release of traditional demand from China's real estate and infrastructure sectors; downstream users in the PVC industry mostly purchased as needed, resulting in a generally subdued trading atmosphere. Meanwhile, other downstream sectors of inorganic tin also showed characteristics of being suppressed by high prices and slowing end-user pace. In the tinplate market, export orders weakened somewhat due to anti-dumping policies in some countries, but overall operating rates remained relatively stable.
Overall, the market was significantly influenced in the short term by fluctuations in macro sentiment. The US Fed's early-morning decision to hold rates steady briefly ignited bullish sentiment among funds, driving prices to quickly spike in early trading; however, the tin market's own fundamentals have not seen any material turnaround. Against the weak backdrop of the traditional consumption off-season, high spot prices suppressing downstream purchases, and generally slow end-user orders, tin prices' upside momentum has weakened somewhat. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend overall, caught in a tug-of-war between "macro sentiment boost" and "fundamental off-season pressure."
![US Fed holds rates steady for fifth consecutive time, SHFE tin 2609 contract returns to 418,000 [SMM Tin Morning Update]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/LLUUJ20251217171751.jpeg)
