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Macro
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01
★★
[Key Points of Fed Rate Decision and Chairman Warsh Press Conference: The US Fed Held Rates Steady for Fifth Straight Meeting in 2026; Warsh Said US Inflation Won’t Be Solved in Nine Weeks; Warsh Stressed the Fed Will Not Endorse Any Market Moves]
I. Interest Rates ①The US Fed left the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive hold this year. ②US interest rate swaps no longer fully price a Fed rate hike in September. ③Fed Chairman Warsh said the Fed will not hesitate to act when necessary and appropriate. ④Fed Chairman Warsh stated that if inflation proves sticky, rates may be part of the solution. II. Inflation ①The FOMC statement reiterated that US inflation remains elevated, partly due to impact effects. ②Fed Chairman Warsh said there is no soft inflation target and the 2% target is immovable. ③Fed Chairman Warsh said inflation wouldn’t be solved in nine weeks. ④Fed Chairman Warsh said the June core CPI print had relatively small impact on decision-making and the Fed will monitor upcoming inflation data. ⑤Fed Chairman Warsh noted that PCE is the Fed’s reference gauge and will continue to be followed. III. US Economy ①The FOMC statement noted that US economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, though uncertainty remains high. ②Fed Chairman Warsh said the US economy has demonstrated impressive resilience. ③Fed Chairman Warsh said the bond market appears to be signalling a strong and stable economy. IV. Financial Markets ①The FOMC will maintain an ample reserve policy for the banking system. ②The Fed kept the discount rate unchanged at 3.75%. ③Fed Chairman Warsh said nominal and real Treasury yields have risen sharply. ④Fed Chairman Warsh said reduced forward guidance may have influenced market moves and that de‑emphasising forward guidance needs a transition period. ⑤Fed Chairman Warsh said the Fed is watching yield moves and is trying to stay out of the way. ⑥Fed Chairman Warsh said the Fed will not endorse any market moves but will observe market dynamics with heightened attention. ⑦Fed Chairman Warsh said that if one looks at market prices from a macro perspective, financial conditions have tightened. V. Others ①Fed Chairman Warsh said AI‑related investment is laying the groundwork for future economic growth. ②Fed Chairman Warsh said it is hard to predict when supply‑side effects from capex spending will emerge. ③Fed Chairman Warsh said he hasn’t yet thought about whether to speak at Jackson Hole. ④Fed Chairman Warsh pledged to continue holding press conferences through year‑end.
02
★★★
[Trump Says the US Will Strike Iran Hard and Impose Additional Tariffs]
US President Trump told reporters at the White House on the afternoon of 29 July local time that the US would “strike Iran hard” because “Iran fired missiles at US troops in the Middle East” and now it is “America’s turn to strike back”. Trump said, “Iran knows the strike is unavoidable and has asked the US not to launch it,” but the US will “teach them a lesson.” Trump also said he wants to add a provision authorising US tariffs on Iran to a sanctions bill against Russia previously pushed by the late Senator Lindsey Graham.
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Industry and Downstream
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01
★★
[South Korea’s Three Shipbuilders Post Combined Q2 Operating Profit Exceeding 2.7 Trillion Won, Boosted by High‑Value LNG Carriers]
South Korea’s three major domestic shipbuilders delivered strong Q2 results, with combined operating profit surpassing 2.7 trillion won, driven by a higher share of high‑value vessels such as LNG carriers. According to industry sources, on the 29th, HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering [009540], Hanwha Ocean [042660] and Samsung Heavy Industries [010140] recorded combined operating profit of 2.7062 trillion won in Q2, on total sales of 17.609 trillion won. High‑priced ships ordered during the shipbuilding boom are now reflected in revenue, and improved productivity and selective order strategies were cited as enhancing profitability.
02
★★
[China Energy Group: H1 Coal Production and Sales Were About 420 Million mt, Up 6.9% YoY]
China Energy Group held a Q2 press conference, where its spokesperson Zhao Zhe said that in H1, the group’s coal production and sales were about 420 million mt, up 6.9% YoY; power generation was nearly 600 billion kWh, up 3.3% YoY; rail freight volume, loading volume at the two ports and shipping freight volume all grew over 5% YoY; and chemical output exceeded 13.8 million mt, up 2.2% YoY.
03
★★★
[CPCA: From 1–26 July, China’s NEV Passenger Car Retail Sales Were Down 2% YoY and Down 10% MoM]
Data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) shows that from 1–26 July, China’s passenger car retail sales reached 1.123 million units, down 18% YoY and down 13% MoM; year‑to‑date retail sales totalled 9.824 million units, down 20% YoY. From 1–26 July, NEV passenger car retail sales were 738,000 units, down 2% YoY and down 10% MoM; year‑to‑date NEV retail sales reached 5.443 million units, down 13% YoY. The NEV retail penetration rate over 1–26 July was 65.7%.
04
★★★
[Shanghai Central Urban Districts Push Forward Acquisition of Pre‑owned Homes for Affordable Rental Housing; Three Pilot Districts Have Acquired 551 Units]
Work to acquire pre‑owned homes in Shanghai’s central urban districts was accelerated across the board. On 26 July 2026, the reporter learned from the Shanghai Municipal Housing Administration that since the pilot programme was launched in February this year to acquire pre‑owned homes for affordable rental housing, the districts of Xuhui, Pudong and Jing’an actively explored the scheme. As of 25 July, the three pilot districts had acquired 551 pre‑owned homes in total, among which 16 households had completed replacement purchases of new homes. Huangpu, Changning, Hongkou, Putuo and Yangpu districts subsequently expanded the implementation in May, actively serving residents’ home replacement needs, promoting the effective circulation of existing housing assets, and accelerating the supply of affordable rental housing in central urban districts.
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Other Hot Topics
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⭕[Implementation Rules for Shanghai’s 2026 Consumer Goods Trade‑in Subsidy Policy for Self‑selected Categories Issued]The Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce and seven other departments jointly issued the Implementation Rules for Shanghai’s 2026 Consumer Goods Trade‑in Subsidy Policy for Self‑selected Categories. The rules specify that individual consumers purchasing nine categories of smart home products—including intelligent cleaning robots (including sweeping and window‑cleaning robots), smart toilets (including smart toilet seats), smart beds (including smart mattresses), function sofas (including massage chairs), smart range hoods, smart gas stoves (including integrated stoves), digital cameras (including action cameras), smart water purifiers, and smart dishwashers—will receive a subsidy equal to 15% of the final selling price after deducting all promotional discounts. Each consumer can receive a subsidy for one item per category, capped at 1,500 yuan per item. For elderly‑friendly home products such as smart walking aids (including electric wheelchairs and exoskeleton robots), the subsidy is 20% of the final selling price after discounts, with a cap of one item per category per consumer and up to 2,000 yuan per item.
⭕[National Carbon Emissions Trading Volume Exceeds 62.9 Billion Yuan, Covering Over 65% of China’s CO₂ Emissions]The national carbon emissions trading market launched in July 2021. As of 28 July this year, cumulative trading volume had exceeded 62.9 billion yuan, covering four high‑emission sectors—power generation, steel, cement and aluminium smelting—which account for over 65% of China’s total CO₂ emissions. It is expected that by 2027, the national carbon market will basically cover major industrial emitters, expanding to chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, paper and other high‑emission sectors, bringing coverage to around 80% of China’s greenhouse gas emissions.
⭕[CO₂ Emissions per Unit of GDP to Fall 17% During the 15th Five‑Year Plan Period]On the 29th, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, together with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and 16 other departments, jointly released the National Climate Change Response Plan for the 15th Five‑Year Plan Period, systematically laying out targets and tasks for the 15th Five‑Year Plan period and providing clear guidance for climate action over the next five years. According to the Plan, by 2030, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 17% compared with 2025; per‑unit product CO₂ emissions in sectors covered by the national carbon market will drop by around 3% from 2025; a credible, transparent, methodologically unified, broadly participated and internationally aligned national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market will be established; a product carbon footprint management system will be largely in place; monitoring and control of non‑CO₂ greenhouse gases will be strengthened, forming 30 million mt of CO₂e reduction capacity; the climate adaptation system will be improved, staged progress will be made in building a climate‑adaptive society, and awareness and capacity for addressing climate change will continue to grow. China’s influence, guiding ability, shaping power and moral appeal in global climate governance will be notably enhanced.
⭕[Iran Says It Intercepted Three “Violating” Oil Tankers in the Strait of Hormuz]Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued several announcements on the 29th stating that the IRGC navy continued to “fully control the Strait of Hormuz” and struck and intercepted three “violating” oil tankers a few hours earlier. The announcements said the tankers “ignored its warnings and continued sailing on unsafe and illegal routes, and were hit and intercepted.”
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