Fundamentals Remain Under Pressure, Upside Room for Iron Ore Expected to Be Limited [SMM Daily Iron Ore Briefing]

Published: Aug 24, 2026 17:26

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Today, iron ore futures consolidated and moved higher. The most-traded DCE contract, I2701, closed at 716 yuan/mt, up 1.27% from the previous trading day. Spot prices at Qingdao port rose by 6-10 yuan/mt, with traders actively selling while steel mills’ wait-and-see sentiment intensified, resulting in generally low spot trading volume.

According to SMM shipping data, global iron ore shipments totaled 33.17 million mt last week, edging down 1% WoW and up 1% YoY on a cumulative basis. Meanwhile, as the impact of the typhoon faded and port unloading efficiency improved, China’s iron ore arrivals reached 30.78 million mt last week, rebounding sharply 65% WoW and up 4.6% YoY on a cumulative basis. Supply pressure increased significantly this week, putting some downward pressure on ore prices.

However, driven by demand expectations during the traditional September-October peak season and fueled by rising expectations of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand at the macro level, market sentiment turned positive, and iron ore futures prices tracked steel products higher, holding up well. But given iron ore’s own fundamentals remain weak and coke price increases further squeeze steel mill profits, ore prices face significant resistance on the upside, and although they hold up well in the near term, gains are expected to be limited.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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