Could the Lifting of Environmental Protection Constraints Bring a Hot Metal Inflection Point? [SMM Iron Ore Daily Review]

Published: Jul 29, 2026 16:50

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Today, the iron ore futures market trended weaker. The most-traded I2609 contract on the DCE closed at 739 yuan/mt, down 0.27% from the previous trading session. Spot prices at Qingdao port fell by 1-3 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders were fairly active in offering, while steel mills mainly purchased on a rigid demand basis, resulting in weak overall spot trading sentiment.

Short-term iron ore demand dipped marginally, but is expected to grow from next week. According to an SMM survey, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate among sampled steel mills was 88.90%, down 0.59 percentage points MoM. The daily average hot metal production of sampled steel mills was 2.4087 million mt, down 16,000 mt MoM. Next week, as environmental protection restrictions are lifted, most blast furnaces under maintenance will gradually resume production, and pig iron production is expected to enter a growth trajectory. However, limited by the high iron ore inventory itself and uncertainties in the market outlook, short-term iron ore prices are expected to struggle to break through overhead resistance and may continue to move sideways. [SMM Steel]

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