Steel Tender Prices Fall, Market Sentiment Weakens [SMM Analysis]

Ferrochrome Price Review: Ferrochrome prices remained unchanged this week. As of July 24, 2026, high-carbon ferrochrome was quoted at 8,000-8,150 yuan/mt (50% metal content) in Inner Mongolia, 8,100-8,250 yuan/mt (50% metal content) in Sichuan and north-west China, and 8,350-8,450 yuan/mt (50% metal content) in east China, all flat MoM. Kazakhstan-origin high-carbon ferrochrome was quoted at 9,500-9,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content), also flat MoM. TISCO and Tsingshan announced their August high-carbon ferrochrome tender prices at 7,895 yuan/mt (50% metal content) and 8,095 yuan/mt (50% metal content), respectively, down 200 yuan MoM.

Demand side: The stainless steel market consolidated on a strong note this week, with spot and futures prices steadily climbing. However, the market remained in the traditional consumption off-season, end-use demand releases were limited, and stainless steel mills’ production cut plans stayed unchanged. Ferrochrome procurement was mainly need-based, with a sluggish inquiry and purchase atmosphere. Additionally, mainstream steel mills announced August tender prices at a 200 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM decline, leaving participants with weak confidence and relatively pessimistic expectations for the near-term outlook.

Supply side: Ferrochrome producers largely maintained normal production, and China’s high-carbon ferrochrome production is expected to edge up slightly in July. On the import front, customs data showed that China’s total high-carbon ferrochrome imports reached 147,400 mt in June 2026, up 12.48% MoM but down 25.87% YoY. South African ferrochrome production resumptions have yet to show significant progress, so imports are expected to remain low in the short term, with a relatively small impact on supply. Overall, China’s ferrochrome market faces an oversupply dilemma, with prices remaining under pressure.

Cost side: Ferrochrome production costs saw limited fluctuations this week, with firm chrome ore prices providing a floor. According to SMM data, Inner Mongolia’s ferrochrome production costs were approximately 7,835-7,890 yuan/mt (50% metal content), up 0.23% MoM, while Sichuan’s costs were approximately 7,946-7,981 yuan/mt (50% metal content), up 0.19% MoM.

Chrome Ore Price Review: As of July 24, 2026, 40-42% South African chrome ore concentrate was quoted at 53-54 yuan/mtu at Tianjin port, flat MoM; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome ore concentrate was at 56-57 yuan/mtu, up 0.5 yuan MoM; and 40-42% Turkish lumpy chrome ore was quoted at 70-70.5 yuan/mtu, up 0.5 yuan MoM. Ex-China, 40-42% South African chrome ore concentrate was offered at $280/mt this week, flat MoM; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome ore concentrate was offered at $350-360/mt, flat MoM; and 40-42% Turkish lumpy chrome ore was offered at $325-335/mt, up $5 MoM.

Supply side: Chrome ore destocking continued, somewhat easing the oversupply. According to SMM data, total chrome ore inventory at ports this week was 4.9036 million mt, down 1.35% MoM. Although chrome ore inventory declined, it remained at a high for the year, and short-term destocking pressure persisted. Supply of high-grade chrome ore concentrate and mainstream lumpy ore was tight, with notable increases in offer prices. South African chrome ore concentrate supply was ample, but the high cost of recently arrived cargoes left traders facing price inversions; thus, they held prices firm. Chrome ore prices remained robust during the week.

Demand side: Ferrochrome producers avoided long-term stockpiling and mainly consumed existing chrome ore. Tentative inquiries increased, but actual transactions were insufficient. Furthermore, the August steel mill tender price was down 200 yuan MoM, leaving producers with a pessimistic near-term outlook. Given that ferrochrome remains in the doldrums, grinding lower, and faces sales difficulties, chrome ore, as a raw material, lacks a bottom-side support. Any price rebound is expected to be relatively unsustainable, and the overall market is expected to move sideways.