Tin Midday Commentary for July 23, 2026
The tin market, both in and outside China, exhibited a pattern of wild swings with a slight upward shift in its center. The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 416,330 yuan/mt, experienced a volatile session, dipped to a low of 415,290 yuan/mt before consolidating higher, and reached a high of 419,880 yuan/mt. It closed the morning at 418,710 yuan/mt, edging up 0.27% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The LME also maintained a fluctuating trend, with three-month tin last trading at $54,130/mt, a marginal increase of 0.06%.
On the Macro Front:
(1) Tensions in the Middle East remain high, as the US military conducted strikes on military targets in Iran for the twelfth consecutive night. Trump publicly warned that if Iran attacks commercial vessels in the Strait, the US will strike civilian infrastructure such as bridges and power plants. Iran responded firmly, threatening reciprocal retaliation against all US-related facilities across the Middle East if its domestic infrastructure is attacked. Consequently, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has continued to shrink, with numerous vessels rerouting, stalling progress on the previously proposed 10-day temporary ceasefire plan.
(2) Markets are closely awaiting the announcement of a new US tariff scheme. The existing 10% global temporary import tariff is set to expire on July 24, and the US side plans to introduce a replacement policy of 10%-12.5% under the Section 301 investigation framework for a seamless transition. The persistence of trade protectionist policies means cost pressures from export tariffs on electronic components and industrial metals are unlikely to ease in the short term.
(3) AMD signed a long-term strategic agreement with AI firm Anthropic, under which it will invest up to $5 billion. Anthropic plans to deploy up to 2 gigawatts of AMD MI450 series AI accelerator chips starting in H1 2027 to expand its computing clusters. The sustained expansion of global AI capital expenditure is expected to significantly boost server hardware procurement demand, which is positive for tin consumption orders in the advanced packaging and PCB industry chain in the medium and long term.
On the spot side, spot trades were subdued this morning. High and wildly swinging futures prices, coupled with limited actual new orders from end-users, led to low purchase willingness among downstream enterprises, which entered the market only to purchase as needed. Overall market activity was dominated by scattered, rigid-demand transactions.
In summary, the current tin market is clearly characterized by "fundamentals setting the floor and ceiling, and macro factors dictating the amplitude." From the fundamental dimension, the persistently slow pace of production resumptions in Myanmar and relatively low social inventory in China are providing a price floor, while the absence of new end-user orders and weak spot trades are capping the upside. This two-way supply-demand pull jointly limits the absolute space for prices to move significantly higher or lower. Meanwhile, a mix of sentiments—a recurring geopolitical conflict, US dollar movements, and the high prosperity of the AI industry—act as a catalyst, fueling wild swings on the futures market. In the near term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to remain vulnerable to macro sentiment and continue its wild swings within the current range.
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