Under Dual Pressure from Demand and Cost, ADC12 Spot Price Declines [ADC12 Price Daily Review]

Futures: Today, the aluminum alloy 2609 contract opened lower in the day session, fluctuated, and rebounded. It opened at 22,870 yuan/mt in early trading, intraday dipped to a low of 22,855 yuan/mt, then drifted higher to the day's high of 23,015 yuan/mt before pulling back slightly, and closed at 22,955 yuan/mt at midday, up 115 yuan/mt from the settlement price, a gain of 0.50%. The weak sentiment from the overnight night session eased somewhat, but overhead selling pressure still existed. After hitting the high, upward momentum slowed down. Overall, the market moved in a bottom-out, sideways consolidation and repair pattern, with a mild rebound and no strong reversal signal emerging yet.

Spot: Today, the ADC12 market remained in the doldrums, with the center of quotations shifting slightly lower. From a fundamental perspective, the pullback in aluminum prices weakened cost support; meanwhile, the off-season effect continued to intensify, downstream users maintained just-in-time procurement, and overall transaction volumes were sluggish. Under double pressure from weak demand and loosening cost support, market quotations were under pressure and pulled back, but some enterprises, considering high costs, still held prices firm and maintained a wait-and-see sentiment. It is expected that ADC12 prices will maintain a sideways consolidation pattern in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to primary aluminum trends, fluctuations in aluminum scrap costs, and the substantive recovery of end-user orders.