The SHFE/LME Price Ratio Window Saw a Phased Recovery, and the Growth in Lead Concentrates Imports in June Was Limited [SMM Analysis]

SMM, July 20:

According to the latest customs data, in June 2026, lead concentrates imports were 116,000 mt in physical content, up 9,000 mt in physical content or 8.45% MoM, and down 1.69% YoY. January-June cumulative imports were 703,900 mt in physical content, down 4.95% YoY.

By country, the top three sources of lead concentrates imports in June were Russia (31,200 mt in physical content, 26.89%), Peru (19,800 mt in physical content, 17.09%), and Australia (10,200 mt in physical content, 8.76%). The MoM increase in June was mainly driven by significant growth from Peru and Russia. From the import profit margin perspective, June saw the domestic market outperform overseas, with the SHFE/LME price ratio continuously recovering and the import loss for lead concentrates narrowing to around -200 yuan/mt. Amid a tight domestic ore supply, TCs were revised down again, and domestic smelters' demand for imported ore increased, also contributing to growth.

Entering July, domestic smelters entered seasonal maintenance, and with the continuing tight raw material supply and secondary lead enterprises also increasing maintenance amid losses, social inventory hovered around 70,000 mt. Overseas, large deliveries over two consecutive days pushed LME inventory above 450,000 mt. The trend of domestic market outperforming overseas continued, with lead concentrates imports remaining at a small loss. Primary lead smelters, supported by profits from by-products such as sulphuric acid, still had relatively large demand for ore. In addition, south China entered the rainy season in July, leading some mines to halt for maintenance. Meanwhile, under environmental protection and safety inspections, some small mines also halted. Demand for imported lead concentrates remained large. Coupled with the recovery of overseas mine production and transportation in Q2, main ports' lead concentrates inventory increased to over 20,000 mt. Lead concentrates imports are expected to further increase in July.

Data source statement: All data other than public information is based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.