SMM July 15:
Metals Market:
Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets broadly rose, with only LME lead, SHFE aluminum, SHFE lead, and SHFE nickel declining together. SHFE lead led the declines with a 1.45% drop, while LME tin led the gains with a 2.39% increase. SHFE tin rose 1.45%, LME copper gained 0.9%, and the % changes for other metals were within 1%. Alumina main contract rose 1.08%, while cast aluminum main contract fell 0.11%.
Overnight, ferrous metals collectively rose. Rebar and iron ore both gained around 0.8%, with rebar up 0.88% and iron ore up 0.8%. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) rose 0.73%. Coking coal and coke saw coking coal rise 0.4% and coke rise 0.35%.
Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 1.31% and COMEX silver rose 1.84%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.89% and SHFE silver rose 1.98%.
Overnight closing prices as of 6:44 a.m. on July 15:
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Macro Front
China:
[China's H1 Imports and Exports Scale Surpassed 25 Trillion Yuan for First Time, up 16.9% YoY; Strong Foreign Trade Growth Momentum Expected to Continue in H2] The State Council Information Office held a press conference today (14th) to report on China’s foreign trade performance this year. At the conference, it was reported that China's foreign trade achieved double-digit growth in H1, maintaining a sound operational trend. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, imports and exports of related products showed strong momentum. In H1, imports and exports of computing hardware such as electronic components and computer parts reached 5.13 trillion yuan, up 56.6% YoY. Smart products like AI glasses, AI translators, and mechanical exoskeletons are iterating rapidly, with various innovative products constantly emerging. According to customs statistics, in H1, China's total goods trade import and export value was 25.47 trillion yuan, up 16.9% YoY. Of this, exports were 14.73 trillion yuan, up 13.4% YoY, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of growth; imports were 10.74 trillion yuan, up 22.1% YoY, with the growth rate 8.7 percentage points higher than that of exports. In June alone, imports and exports totaled 4.78 trillion yuan, up 24.2% YoY, marking 17 consecutive months of growth. From the export perspective, the product structure further optimized. In H1, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products were 9.36 trillion yuan, up 20.1% YoY, accounting for 63.5% of total export value, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Exports of high-tech products reached 3.26 trillion yuan, up 39% YoY. (CCTV News) >> Click for Details
SMM compiled import and export data for some metal industry products based on figures released by the General Administration of Customs, details as follows:
>> Click for Detailed Import and Export Data
US Dollar Side:
As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.38% to 100.93. The US inflation data released on Tuesday came in below expectations, leading traders to scale back bets on US Fed rate hikes. Data released by the US Labor Department on the 14th showed that, dragged down by falling energy prices, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase pulled back in June, though inflationary pressure remained significant. The data showed that while the US June CPI YoY increase slowed to 3.5% from May's 4.2%, it was still significantly above the US Fed's 2% inflation target. The Labor Department stated that the decline in energy prices was the biggest factor pulling back the CPI increase for the month, offsetting price increases in other areas like housing and food. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said inflationary pressure eased somewhat in June, but the slowing inflation trend may be short-lived as military confrontation between the US and Iran heats up again. (Xinhua News Agency) (Jin10 Data APP)
After June inflation data came in below expectations, the CME "FedWatch" tool showed that the probability of a Fed rate hike this month fell to 17%, compared to 42% yesterday. The June CPI data showed a 0.4% MoM decline and a 3.5% YoY increase, indicating a milder price trend than economists predicted. Even excluding the significant drop in oil prices last month, the inflation figures were better than expected. Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital noted, "This data exceeded our expectations, and even if it hasn't completely eliminated the possibility of a rate hike this month, it has significantly reduced that probability." According to FedWatch data, the market broadly expects at least one rate hike within the year. (Jin10 Data APP)
A CITIC Securities research report stated that the US June CPI was broadly lower than expected, retail oil prices fell, core services items showed zero MoM growth, and second-round inflation effects were minimal. CITIC Securities believes US inflation stickiness is weak, the headline CPI YoY has confirmed it passed its peak for this round, and Q3 will generally show a mild pullback, hitting bottom in September, before rising to a secondary high at year-end and rapidly declining next March. CITIC Securities still expects the US Fed to hold steady all year, sees further downside room for rate hike expectations priced into derivatives, believes US Treasuries are currently unsuitable for tactical allocation opportunities (short-end bonds are better than long-end bonds), thinks the US dollar index has difficulty surging sustainably but has support, and views the tech-driven theme in US equities as still attractive.
According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged in July is 84.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 15.5%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through September is 42.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bps hike is 50%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bps hike is 7.8%. (Jin10 Data APP)
Macro Side:
Data to be released today include China’s Q2 GDP YoY rate, China’s June total retail sales YoY, China’s June industrial production above designated size YoY, China’s June total electricity consumption YoY, China’s June total electricity consumption, US June PPI YoY, US June PPI MoM, US July NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index, Eurozone May industrial production MoM, Canada May wholesale sales MoM, and the Bank of Canada interest rate decision as of July 15. Additionally, the NBS will release its monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities. The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on national economic performance and another press briefing on the implementation of H1 2026 monetary policy and financial statistics data. The National Energy Administration will release total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr will speak on AI at the Fed's annual Financial Inclusion Conference. 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a fireside chat. Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Fed Governor Bowman will speak at the Fed's annual Financial Inclusion Conference. FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will deliver remarks. Fed Chairman Walsh will testify before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee on the "Federal Reserve's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report." BOE Governor Bailey will speak. The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, and BoC Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. ASML will release its Q2 2026 financial results.
Crude Oil Side:
Overnight, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic rose together, with WTI crude up 2.16% and Brent crude up 2.21%. The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran heightened concerns about supply disruption risks. However, news last night indicated that US President Donald Trump abandoned his idea of imposing a 20% compensation fee on cargo transiting through the Strait of Hormuz just a day after it was widely criticized as impractical. (From Wall Street CN APP)
American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that last week, US API crude oil inventories fell by 564,000 barrels, following a decline of 399,000 barrels the previous week. API Cushing crude oil inventories rose by 238,000 barrels last week, compared to a decrease of 69,000 barrels previously. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.664 million barrels (prior: -2.929 million barrels), while distillate inventories rose by 2.259 million barrels (prior: -1.801 million barrels). (From Wall Street CN APP)
Foreign media reported, citing sources, that Iran had begun secretly moving oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz over the past few days, before the escalation of hostilities and the US announcement that it would re-impose a blockade on Iranian ports. Vessel tracking data shows that over the past week, a total of six US-sanctioned very large crude carriers (VLCCs) sailed through the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders turned off. These six tankers can collectively transport 12 million barrels of crude oil. These vessels, along with other Iran-linked ships, completed their voyages after the US revoked the license on July 7 that allowed Iran to temporarily sell crude oil. Besides these six Iranian VLCCs, a significant number of US-sanctioned vessels linked to Tehran have departed from the Strait of Hormuz since July 7. These ships are part of the 57 million barrels of crude oil that Iran successfully exported between the two rounds of US naval blockades. (Jin10 Data APP)
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