[Platinum and Palladium Price Review and Forecast]
This week, platinum and palladium prices bottomed out and rebounded, with the overall pace resonating strongly with macro sentiment in the precious metals sector. At the start of the week, prices opened under pressure and weakened, dipped synchronously to the week’s low on Wednesday, then gradually stabilized and rebounded. On Thursday, driven by easing expectations of interest rate hikes, prices surged sharply—platinum rallied over 5% in a single day, while palladium gained 2.97%.
On the macro front, in the first half of the week, the Fed’s hawkish stance and a strong US dollar continued to weigh on precious metal valuations, and combined with sentiment transmission from weak end-use demand in the auto sector outside China, platinum and palladium prices weakened consecutively. On Wednesday evening, Fed Chairman Warsh made dovish remarks, saying that inflation expectations and risks had declined in recent weeks. Along with ADP employment data and the ISM Manufacturing PMI coming in below expectations, market expectations of rate hikes cooled somewhat, the US dollar pulled back slightly from highs, and platinum and palladium prices rebounded strongly during the day.
On the spot front, mainstream spot premiums for platinum and palladium were quoted around parity with GFEX, but overall consumption remained weak. Downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, actual transactions were limited, and deals mostly took place within discounts of 1 yuan/g to parity against the most-traded GFEX contract. Spot premiums overall remained relatively stable and did not fluctuate significantly with the futures market.
Regarding the outlook, as macro expectations for precious metals turn warmer, the near-term pressure on platinum and palladium eases. However, elevated US Treasury yields and the US dollar index will still cap upside room in the short term, and wild swings and consolidation are expected to continue. For platinum and palladium spot premiums, they are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range from a discount of 1 yuan/g to a premium of 1 yuan/g against the most-traded GFEX contract, and it is quite difficult for market premiums to widen further in the short term.
[Platinum and Palladium Weekly Data Comments]
In terms of exchange inventories outside China, platinum sustained a one-sided destocking trend. As of end-June, inventories fell to around 420,000 oz, down more than 40% from the year-start high. Palladium inventories saw slight destocking, with current levels still near a one-year high. On the imports front, platinum imports in May rebounded slightly, with the overall average level close to that of the same period last year. Palladium imports pulled back slightly, but the overall average level remained significantly higher than that from 2023 to 2025.
