[Platinum and Palladium Price Review and Forecast]
This week (August 28 - September 3), platinum and palladium prices showed wild swings of sharp rise and crash followed by an oversold rebound, with the weekly trading range significantly widened.
At the start of the week (Friday, August 28), the market expected Fed Chairman Waller's Jackson Hole debut to release dovish signals, and with strong sentiment across the precious metals sector, platinum and palladium shot up sharply. However, that evening Waller's speech released hawkish signals, mentioning inflation 25 times and stressing that "if inflation does not return to 2%, the Fed still has work to do." The probability of a September rate hike surged, the US dollar and US Treasury yields rose rapidly, and overseas precious metals gold, silver, and platinum plunged together, while palladium diverged significantly and strengthened against the trend, mainly due to renewed Russian supply risks, rising US tariff expectations, and concentrated release of catch-up momentum.
On Monday, GFEX followed the overseas market with a sharp gap-down open. The most-traded platinum contract closed down 3.88% at 445 yuan/g, while palladium shot up in early trading to a weekly high of 333.85 yuan/g before pulling back. Mid-week, panic sentiment was released intensively, and both platinum and palladium plunged.
At the end of the week, US August ADP employment data came in at 38,000, below market expectations of 48,000, marking the lowest monthly gain of the year and further cooling of the labor market. The data lowered the probability of a September Fed rate hike, and combined with a technical rebound after the oversold decline in futures, the most-traded platinum contract closed up 2.34% at 435.65 yuan/g, and the most-traded palladium contract closed up 4.24% at 316.85 yuan/g, though still failing to recover the week's losses. The most-traded GFEX platinum contract hit a weekly high of 464.2 yuan/g and a low of 421.25 yuan/g, closing at 435.65 yuan/g as of September 3, down about 3.36% WoW, with a weekly trading range of about 10.2%. The most-traded palladium contract hit a weekly high of 333.85 yuan/g and a low of 300.1 yuan/g, closing at 316.85 yuan/g as of September 3, up about 0.76% WoW, with a weekly trading range of about 11.25%.
In the spot market, mid-week downstream inquiries increased notably as futures fell sharply, and suppliers actively quoted prices, creating a relatively active trading atmosphere. However, due to strong spot supply, transaction discounts did not narrow significantly. Mainstream quotations for platinum and palladium spot cargo throughout the week were around a discount of 4 yuan/g to 2 yuan/g against the most-traded GFEX contracts, while some warehouse warrant quotes remained firm. Overall, trading activity in the platinum and palladium spot market heated up during the week, with futures trading ranges widening but premiums moving only narrowly.
Looking ahead, short-term direction is highly anchored to the September Fed meeting and US August employment and inflation data. On the bullish side, COMEX registered platinum inventory is at a historically extremely low percentile, with thin supply-side buffer. ETF and investment demand continues to flow in, providing capital support. For palladium, if Russian supply risks and US tariff expectations continue to escalate, they will provide phased support to prices. However, downside constraints are equally clear: first, Waller's Jackson Hole speech set a clearly hawkish tone, with the probability of a September rate hike rising above 50% again, significantly strengthening rate-side pressure. Second, the US-Iran situation remains volatile, with Hormuz shipping not yet substantively implemented, and oil prices and inflation expectations may cause renewed disruption. Going forward, key focus should be on the US August non-farm payrolls data on September 4, US August CPI data on September 10, and the FOMC meeting on September 15-16, with the high-volatility environment expected to persist in the short term.
[Platinum and Palladium Weekly Data Commentary]
COMEX platinum and palladium inventories maintained a divergent pattern this week. Platinum inventory continued its previous destocking trend, with registered inventory at around 190,000 ounces as of end-August, at an extremely low level in the 10th percentile historically, leaving thin deliverable buffer. Total inventory was around 390,000 ounces, with the registered ratio maintained at about 48%-49%. The core reason is that industrial buying has become more cautious amid intensified platinum price fluctuations, but ETF and investment demand continues to flow in. CFTC data shows platinum fund long positions rose 24% MoM to 29 mt, and net longs surged 51% MoM to 16 mt, with capital inflows offsetting part of the slowdown in industrial demand, keeping the destocking trend intact. Palladium inventory remained consolidating at highs, with registered inventory at around 198,000 ounces and total inventory at around 250,000 ounces, with the registered ratio near 80%. US warehouse buffer inventory remains at a high level over the past year, and the loose supply pattern remains unchanged.
On the import side, according to customs data, July 2026 imports of unwrought platinum and platinum powder were about 8.35 mt, down 21.74% MoM and up 23.52% YoY. Imports of unwrought palladium and palladium powder were about 2.99 mt, down 37.05% MoM and down 2.61% YoY. Although platinum imports pulled back MoM, they still maintained YoY growth, with cumulative imports from January to July at about 56.53 mt, up about 16.5% YoY, with the import level significantly higher than the same period in 2023-2025. Palladium imports turned negative YoY in July, the first single-month YoY decline since 2026, reflecting cooling restocking willingness among importers amid weak domestic automotive catalyst and industrial demand. Cumulative imports from January to July were about 29.96 mt, still up about 85% YoY. Overall, domestic platinum and palladium supply remains relatively ample, and combined with export restriction policies, domestic surplus is difficult to digest through exports.
On lease rates, London platinum and palladium lease rates remained at low levels, with the one-month platinum lease rate below 2% and the one-month palladium lease rate hovering around 1%, indicating ample spot market liquidity and weak lending demand, with the overall loose supply pattern unchanged.
[Platinum Group Compounds]
This week, chloroplatinic acid and palladium chloride both showed a pattern of retreat after rapid rise, hitting bottom mid-week, and rebounding on Friday, with macro factors dominating the fluctuations. Chloroplatinic acid declined from 184.5 yuan/g on Monday, touched a weekly low of 174.5 yuan/g on September 2, then rebounded to 177 yuan/g on September 3. Palladium chloride fluctuated more violently, falling from 204 yuan/g on Monday to 191 yuan/g on Wednesday, a single-day drop of about 5.4%, before rebounding to the 200 yuan/g round-number level on Thursday.
The platinum group compounds spot market saw sluggish trading overall, with downstream demand dominated by just-in-time procurement and strong wait-and-see sentiment, lacking directional drivers in the short term. Last week, chloroplatinic acid moved sideways in the 185-188 yuan/g range, and palladium chloride pulled back from 201 yuan/g to around 200 yuan/g, with the current pattern extending this weak characteristic. Rhodium, ruthenium, and iridium compounds showed a weak mid-week then strengthening mid-week pattern. Rhodium compounds rose sharply, driven by raw material prices. Overall spot shipment pace was average, with downstream demand generally weak and dominated by just-in-time procurement.
![US ADP employment data below market expectations, platinum prices stop falling and rebound, spot market cools [SMM daily review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/obeMy20251217171735.jpg)
