SMM June 20 news:
Metals markets:
Overnight, the domestic base metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at the performance of domestic base metals on June 18: Domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE zinc up 0.39%, SHFE aluminum up 0.38%, and SHFE nickel edging up. SHFE tin fell 2.03%, SHFE copper fell 0.48%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%.
Overnight, the ferrous metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at the performance of ferrous metals on June 18: Stainless steel rose 0.07%, iron ore fell 1.13%, rebar fell 0.95%. HRC fell 0.77%. The most-traded coking coal contract fell 5.78%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 3%.
Overnight in overseas metals, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.5%. LME aluminum rose 0.12%, LME lead fell 1.32%. LME zinc fell 2.05%. LME tin rose 0.19%. LME nickel fell 1.41%.
Overnight in precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.72%, posting its third straight weekly decline and down 1.55% for the week; COMEX silver fell 2.12%, marking six consecutive weekly declines and down 4.51% for the week. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract was closed; SHFE gold rose on the week, up 4.11% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract was closed; SHFE silver rose on the week, up 5.25% for the week.
With no longer expecting the Fed to cut interest rates in 2026, Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end gold price forecast by $500. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said in a note: "We are revising down our 12-month gold price target to $4,900/oz (from $5,400), implying that gold prices are still expected to rise in H2, but less than previously anticipated. Our view on gold prices remains structurally constructive but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risks and medium-term upside risks." The analysts said the downward revision was due to Goldman Sachs economists pushing back their US rate cut expectations to June and December next year, from the previous forecast of December 2026 and March 2027, as well as lower projected gold ETF inflows. They added that, given the "unexpectedly hawkish" first Fed meeting under Chairman Warsh, concerns about central bank independence may be limited. (Jin10 Data)
As of 7:47 am on June 20, overnight closing prices:
Macro front
Domestic front:
[NFRA: Advance the construction of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry] The National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) issued guidelines on the safe development and application of artificial intelligence in banking and insurance. It proposes to promote the construction of an AI application ecosystem in the financial sector. Advance the development of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry and promote the sharing and reuse of AI application outcomes across the sector. Encourage large financial institutions to play an exemplary role and export AI technologies and management experience to small and medium-sized financial institutions. Support small and medium-sized financial institutions in strengthening collaboration to jointly drive the implementation of application scenarios. Encourage closer synergy with the AI industry, using financial applications to foster industrial innovation and development, and leveraging industrial achievements to improve the quality and efficiency of financial applications.
[Box office on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday surpasses 100 million yuan, number of new releases hits a near-decade high for the same period] According to data from online platforms, as of now, the box office (including pre-sales) on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday has exceeded 100 million yuan. The film offerings during the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival are diverse and rich in genre. Over the short three-day holiday, nearly 20 films were released in concentrated fashion, setting a new high for the same period in nearly a decade. The film genres cover sci-fi, youth, animation, and more, addressing the viewing needs of audiences across almost all age groups. (CCTV News)
[Guangdong: Accelerate the construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and make forward-looking plans for 6G technology and satellite internet] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that the deployment of 5G-A networks and pilot projects for 10G optical networks will be advanced in an orderly manner. 50G-PON ports will be deployed on a large scale in key scenarios such as factories and industrial parks. The upgrading and renovation of aging communication facilities will be further promoted, with FTTR whole-home optical network coverage to be achieved simultaneously in both new and older residential communities. Mobile network coverage along major transportation routes and hubs will be improved, and initiatives to increase broadband speeds and benefit the public will be implemented, driving an overall leap in broadband user download rates. The construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will be accelerated, the spatial layout of data centers optimized, edge computing vigorously developed, and a “cloud-edge-device” collaborative computing power service system created. Forward-looking plans will be made for 6G technology and satellite internet, a Guangdong 6G Industry Innovation and Development Alliance will be established, and ministerial-provincial 6G collaborative pilot projects will be promoted, with a focus on creating application benchmarks for distinctive scenarios such as embodied AI, intelligent connected vehicles, the low-altitude economy, and the marine economy.
[Guangdong: Support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in enriching its futures product system and improving the full futures industry chain] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that efforts will be made to cultivate and strengthen high-quality investment banks and investment institutions, encourage leading securities firms and fund management companies to enhance their service capabilities, compliance management capabilities, and market leadership, attract well-known domestic and international asset management institutions to establish corporate headquarters or regional headquarters in Guangdong, and encourage the development of the investment advisory business. Leverage the comprehensive service functions of the capital market, guide and support local cities in improving the databases of enterprises in the listing pipeline and M&A projects, work with stock exchanges, securities firms and other institutions to deliver thorough and detailed full-cycle advisory services for enterprises planning to go public, streamline approval processes involving the transfer of land use rights, real estate, and equity stakes in the M&A and restructuring of publicly listed firms, and encourage enterprises to expand the issuance scale of technology bonds, green bonds, and asset-backed securities. (from Wall Street CN APP)
[Weifang: Expanding the 2026 Consumer Goods Trade-in Category Subsidy Campaign] The Weifang Municipal Bureau of Commerce released an announcement regarding the expansion of the 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy campaign in Weifang City. It will provide subsidies in accordance with unified provincial categories and standards to individual consumers purchasing range hoods, household gas stoves (including integrated stoves), water purifiers, dishwashers, hearing aids, robot vacuum cleaners (including floor scrubbers), mobility-assisting exoskeleton robots, smart toilets, and other products. Individual consumers purchasing the above subsidized category products in Weifang City will receive a subsidy equal to 15% of the final selling price after all applicable discounts. Each person is limited to one subsidized item per category, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item, and the delivery address of the subsidized product must be within the administrative area of Weifang City. (Weifang Release)
[INE Releases Notice on the Launch of Market Orders and Related Trading Order Sizes] According to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE), market orders will be launched effective July 6, 2026 (i.e., starting from the night trading session on July 3, 2026). Market orders will apply to all listed futures and options contracts. For limit orders, the minimum order quantity is 1 lot per order; the maximum order quantity is 500 lots for futures contracts and 100 lots for options contracts. For market orders, the minimum order quantity is 1 lot per order; the maximum order quantity is 60 lots for futures contracts and 30 lots for options contracts. For settlement price trading orders, the minimum order quantity is 1 lot per order, and the maximum order quantity is 500 lots.
On the US dollar front:
Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 100.76, after hitting an intraday high of 101.13 and a low of 100.69. On the weekly chart, the US dollar index rose for the week, gaining 0.97%. Market pricing indicated that bets on Fed rate hikes rose, fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike in September. Data showed that foreign exchange traders, including hedge funds, were heavily buying options, betting that the dollar would strengthen further after the Fed sent hawkish signals this week and reinforced expectations of US rate hikes. According to traders, leveraged funds began buying dollar call options on Wednesday. This demand extended into Thursday as investors digested the anti-inflation rhetoric from the new Fed Chairman Warsh. Tobias Jungmann, Head of Americas FX Options at Bank of America, said, "We are seeing large-scale buying of USD call options, mainly concentrated in G-10 currencies. Given that current implied volatility is at low levels, establishing USD long positions via options looks very attractive." James Swindell, Senior FX Options Trader at Barclays in London, said, "We are seeing significant and broad-based demand for USD call options, particularly in EUR/USD and GBP/USD." (Jin10 Data APP)
According to the CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 60.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 39.6%. For September, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 31.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 49.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 19.1%. (Jin10 Data APP)
In other currencies:
European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane said on Thursday that eurozone inflation will remain elevated despite the recent pullback in energy prices. To address the surge in energy costs since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict in late February, the ECB raised interest rates last week for the first time in nearly three years. However, following the announcement of a peace deal between Iran and the US, oil and natural gas prices subsequently fell sharply. Lane said the ECB has no doubt about the correctness of the rate hike decision and still expects inflation to stay above the 2% target for an extended period. He said, "We think food prices will rise, as will the prices of goods and services. Even in a milder scenario where oil prices pull back, the rate hike was justified." Additionally, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch said: If we see services inflation pick up, we might consider another 25-basis-point hike as insurance. If the data is unclear, I don't think there is any need to rush. (Jin10 Data)
[Bank of England keeps rate unchanged in a 7-2 vote, says it will closely monitor Middle East situation] The Bank of England kept its rate at 3.75%, saying the recent drop in oil prices is "encouraging," although two policymakers voted for an immediate 25-basis-point hike over concerns about persistent inflation. External member Megan Greene joined the camp of Huw Pill, the lone dissenter in April and chief economist, voting to raise the rate to 4% immediately, citing an unstable price outlook despite the recent ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. (from Wall Street News APP)
On the macro front:
Next week, the following data will be released: China's one-year loan prime rate as of June 22, Canada's May CPI m/m, Eurozone June consumer confidence index preliminary, France's June manufacturing PMI preliminary, Germany's June manufacturing PMI preliminary, Eurozone June manufacturing PMI preliminary, UK June manufacturing PMI preliminary, UK June services PMI preliminary, UK June CBI industrial orders balance, US ADP employment change for the week ending June 6 weekly, US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary, US June S&P Global services PMI preliminary, US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Australia's May unadjusted CPI y/y, Germany's June IFO business climate index, Switzerland's June ZEW investor confidence index, US Q1 current account, US May new home sales annualized, Australia's May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's July GfK consumer confidence index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, US May core PCE price index y/y, US May personal spending m/m, US Q1 real GDP annualized q/q final, US Q1 real personal consumption expenditures q/q preliminary, US Q1 real personal consumption expenditures q/q final, US Q1 core PCE price index annualized q/q final, US May core PCE price index m/m, US May durable goods orders m/m, US June final University of Michigan consumer sentiment, US June final 1-year inflation expectations, and other data.
Also next week, attention should be paid to: ECB President Christine Lagarde addressing the EU Parliament; Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem delivering remarks; the 17th Summer Davos Forum held in Dalian from June 23 to 25; the Bank of Japan releasing a summary of opinions from its June monetary policy meeting board members; Nvidia holding its annual general meeting; the Bank of Canada releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Fed releasing its annual bank stress test results; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo attending a central bank lecture event hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); today saw the maturity of 300 billion yuan of one-year medium-term lending facilities (MLF) and 248 billion yuan of seven-day reverse repos; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President John Williams speaking; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaking; and 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaking.
Crude oil:
Overnight, both oil futures gained: WTI crude rose 0.91%, while Brent crude rose 0.47%. On a weekly basis, WTI crude futures posted a second straight weekly decline, falling 9.83% for the week; Brent crude futures also fell for a second consecutive week, down 8.53%. International crude oil futures opened lower on Friday, struggled to rebound intraday, and turned lower several times. They hit a fresh daily low after reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, but as reports emerged that both sides continued to exchange fire after the ceasefire, they turned positive again late in the European session. Brent crude struggled around the $80 mark throughout the day. (Wall Street CN)
Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that negotiations on a permanent agreement with the US will only begin after a permanent end to the war in Lebanon, the full lifting of the US blockade, US issuance of waivers for Iranian oil, and the release of Iran's frozen assets. (Jin10 Data APP)
Iran is shipping a large amount of oil that was previously stranded due to the US blockade, potentially a positive development for Tehran after it signed a tentative peace deal with Washington on Wednesday. Shipping data compiled by Bloomberg showed that 11 tankers carrying a total of 20 million barrels of crude oil departed from Iran's Chabahar port on the Gulf of Oman this week. Previously, the US military had prevented these tankers from entering the Indian Ocean, a move aimed at restricting Tehran's access to petrodollars. (Jin10 Data APP)
Separately, data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) showed that during the week ended June 16, speculative net long positions in Brent crude futures fell by 94,763 contracts to 114,128 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP)
In addition, due to contract rollover, the NYMEX July crude oil futures will see their final floor trading at 2:30 AM on June 23 and final electronic trading at 5:00 AM that day. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and rollover notices to manage risk. In addition, the expiration dates of US oil contracts on some trading platforms are usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX expiration. Please pay extra attention.
![Zinc Concentrate TCs Continue to Decline, SHFE Zinc Maintains Fluctuating Trend [SMM Zinc Futures Brief]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/oTrxc20251217171755.jpg)
![In the short term, ferrous metals will remain under pressure [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/YxksS20251217171748.jpg)
