Supply Increase and Off-Season Demand Weigh on Lead Prices, Cost Support Limits Downside Room [Lead Futures Brief Review]

SMM, June 9:

In the day's session, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,205 yuan/mt, came under overall pressure and weakened after the open, fluctuated downward in morning trading to hit a low of 16,055 yuan/mt, then moved sideways at low levels around the 16,055–16,100 yuan/mt range. In the afternoon, it rebounded slightly with small fluctuations and closed at 16,170 yuan/mt at the end of the session, down 170 yuan/mt, or 1.04%, for the day. The current decline in lead prices is mainly under dual pressure from increased supply from secondary and primary lead smelters and the off-season for lead-acid battery consumption. Downstream participants maintain a strong wait-and-see sentiment, mostly purchasing as needed at lower prices. Meanwhile, social inventory of lead ingots shows a slight destocking trend, and coupled with tightening inventory of scrap battery raw materials for secondary lead, the cost side provides some support for prices. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term.

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