The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Pulled Back After Hitting a Record High, Macro Sentiment Cools and Fundamental Pressure Emerges [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, February 2, 2026

Last week, domestic and overseas tin prices showed a trend of fluctuating considerably at high levels. The most-traded SHFE tin contract once hit a record high, and LME tin futures also broke through key points. Price fluctuations were mainly driven by macro liquidity expectations, supply concerns triggered by geopolitics, and the demand outlook for tin in areas such as AI computing power. However, macro sentiment was highly volatile, and the market cooled off after consecutive gains, with funds taking profits, leading to a pullback in prices from highs. From a fundamental perspective, the overall market exhibited a sluggish supply-demand pattern. On the supply side, most smelters are expected to maintain stable production. Although Indonesia's RKAB policy remains not entirely clear, JFX trading activity has become more active, easing concerns about a supply gap from Indonesia in January-February. Meanwhile, expectations for the resumption of production in Myanmar mining areas and developments in Indonesia's export policies still require close attention. On the demand side, high prices continue to significantly suppress demand. Downstream solder and electronics enterprises generally adopt low-inventory operation strategies, making just-in-time procurement only. Despite the approaching Chinese New Year, pre-holiday restocking demand has not seen significant volume due to the pressure of absolute high prices. Trading in the spot market is sluggish, often showing a situation of "price without market." Additionally, traditional consumer electronics are in the off-season, and demand in areas such as PV is weakened by high raw material costs, resulting in limited overall consumption support. Although uncertainties such as geopolitics may still provide intermittent support to market sentiment, the suppression of actual demand by high prices, the gradual accumulation of global visible inventory, the possibility of supply recovery, and the marginal weakening of macro sentiment collectively constitute potential downward pressure on the market. Tin prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term, with the range's center likely to gradually shift downward. Investors need to closely monitor the movements of speculative funds, progress in Indonesia's supply recovery, global inventory changes, and actual downstream consumption.