The most-traded SHFE tin contract plummeted more than 8% in a single day, and tin prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term [SMM Tin Futures Review]

On January 30, the most-traded SHFE tin contract sn2603 experienced a significant correction following a previous sustained upward trend, as macro sentiment cooled and funds took profits, leading to a broad decline in futures prices. The intraday price fell sharply with a wide range, with open interest decreasing by 8,589 lots for the day, and it finally closed at 409,000 yuan/mt, down 8.26% from the previous day's settlement price. On the LME side, three-month LME tin also moved lower, temporarily quoted at $52,500/mt, a decrease of 3.67%.

On the overseas supply side, data released by Australia's Metals X showed that tin concentrate production at its Renison mine reached 3,319 mt in Q4 2025, surging 46.1% QoQ, boosting full-year production to 10,747 mt, nearing a historical high. The ore mining grade for the quarter significantly improved by 55% to 2.34%, while the mineral processing recovery rate increased to 82.34%, reflecting continued improvements in mine production efficiency. If this production level can be maintained, it may partially alleviate market concerns about overseas supply.

Demand side, the weak trend persists. Although the price decline prompted the release of some orders, current price levels remain at a relatively high level, limiting the release of pre-holiday restocking demand. The terminal electronics industry continues to face cost pressure from rising metal prices, resulting in slow demand transmission; in the PV market, after the installation rush in December, new projects in Q1 are limited, making it difficult to effectively boost demand.

Overall, tin prices have entered an adjustment phase driven by weakening macro drivers, improving overseas supply expectations, and persistently weak demand. Going forward, close attention should be paid to pre-holiday macro developments, the implementation of Indonesia's RKAB policy, and global inventory changes. In the short term, tin prices may continue their fluctuating trend with the price center gradually shifting downward. Industry participants are advised to engage rationally and focus on risk control.