Refined Lead Imports Rose as Expected in October; How Will Imported Lead Ingot Transactions Trend in November?【SMM Analysis】

SMM November 25 News:

According to customs data, China's refined lead exports in October 2025 totaled 2,098 mt, up 41.2% MoM and 11.25% YoY. Combined exports of refined lead and lead products from January to October reached 51,156 mt, up 41.56% YoY. On the import side, China imported 3,812 mt of refined lead and 14,477 mt of lead alloy in October. Total imports of refined lead and lead products in the first ten months amounted to 140,240 mt, down 28.97% YoY.

In early October, macro sentiment was bearish, coupled with rising LME lead inventories, which increased by over 10kt weekly. LME lead fell below the 2,000 mark, hitting a low of $1,963/mt. Meanwhile, SHFE lead was dragged down by LME lead's performance, fluctuating at lows in early October. By late October, environmental protection-related controls led to production halts at some refineries in North China and logistics disruptions in Central China. Combined with social inventory of lead ingots fluctuating at lows, SHFE lead's price center fluctuated upward. LME lead inventories continued to decline in late October, driving LME lead to catch up and rise. During this period, overseas lead ingot offers decreased MoM, and imported lead ingots entering the Chinese market were mostly from September orders.

In early November, technical funds pushed lead prices higher, with SHFE lead hitting a nearly seven-month high, boosting LME lead to a peak of $2,097/mt. By mid-November, LME lead inventories surged sharply, possibly due to undigested inventory drawdowns from late October, coupled with a shift to bearish macro sentiment, causing LME lead to fluctuate downward. SHFE lead also returned to fundamentals, closing lower for several days and hitting a low of 17,115 yuan/mt. Imported lead trading activity remained subdued, with arriving lead ingots mainly from previously concluded orders. Additionally, geopolitical changes in November affected trade relations, influencing imported lead transactions to some extent. In summary, SMM predicts that China's lead ingot imports in November may see a slight decline.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.